Bills Central

Josh Allen's ability to overcome Bills' turnover dubbed one of NFL's 'burning questions'

Fox Sports thinks the Buffalo Bills' season will come down to Josh Allen's ability to overcome the team's roster turnover.

Kyle Silagyi

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs off the field after a 27-24 loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs off the field after a 27-24 loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. / Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and
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An NFL team’s fortunes in any particular season typically come down to the ability and play of their quarterback.

If this were Jeopardy, this statement may be the answer to the question “What is a nothing burger?” It’s a rather obvious sentiment, but it’s true—time and time again, we’ve seen that a professional football team, regardless of the overall strength of their roster, can ultimately only go as far as their quarterback can take them. The Buffalo Bills are fortunate enough to have one of the best signal-callers in the sport, a strapping 6-foot-5 human rhinoceros named Josh Allen.

And Buffalo’s brass leaned into its fortune in the 2024 offseason, retooling its roster and constructing what is a comparatively lesser offensive weapons group in hopes that Allen will be able to elevate his supporting cast. Gone are the franchise’s fourth-all-time leading wideout Stefon Diggs and key complementary piece Gabriel Davis, their production set to be replaced by third-year pass-catcher Khalil Shakir, second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid, rookie Keon Coleman, and free agent signee Curtis Samuel.

Related: Which Bills CBs are among the NFL's most individually impactful?

It’s an unproven, but talented group that the Bills believe Allen will be able to elevate. Fox Sports writer Henry McKenna seems confident in the quarterback, as well; in the outlet’s recent article positing “15 burning questions” entering the 2024 campaign, the publication questioned whether Allen can overcome the team’s roster-wide offseason omissions. McKenna believes he will be able to do so while also conceding that Buffalo may have a tough road ahead.

“Quarterback careers are cyclical and, in turn, predictable,” McKenna wrote. “When an elite QB (like Josh Allen) signs a mega contract, the team's general manager can only finagle the cap for so long. And so the QB's supporting cast fades when compared to what he had on his rookie contract. A few years ago, Allen had a tremendous supporting cast on both offense and defense. Now, he's working with less. The days of Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasely are long gone. (There was a bleak set of days for Buffalo in March when the team released starter after starter to get under the salary cap.) Instead, Allen will have to elevate second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid and receivers Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir. 

“The good news is that Allen is capable. An AFC East scout says Allen is the most terrifying QB to prepare for not named Mahomes. But the compliment is backhanded because that has been the Bills' problem: They've been the best team in the AFC for years — not counting the Chiefs. For Allen and Buffalo, the next few years will likely be more difficult than the past few years. The Bills quarterback needs to keep ascending if Buffalo is to remain in Super Bowl contention.”

Josh Allen John Brown
Sep 20, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass to wide receiver John Brown (15) during the second half against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

As McKenna notes, Allen is capable of elevating what is, on paper, a lesser supporting cast, as he’s been doing so throughout the entirety of his professional career. Think back to his rookie year, a 2018 campaign in which he made undrafted free agent Robert Foster look like a legitimate NFL wide receiver. He elevated John Brown and Cole Beasley to career years the next season and helped Stefon Diggs establish himself as one of the league’s elite the year after that—elevating the talent around him is simply what he does.

It also has to be noted that, while seemingly lesser to units of recent years, this weapons corps is still better than some Allen has been handed (and has had success with) throughout his career. Shakir is a demonstrably talented reliable pair of hands whom Allen has a rapport with, Kincaid is a burgeoning star, Samuel is a versatile former second-round pick, and Coleman is a big-bodied ball of clay who has the potential to be an alpha wideout—this is likely a better group than one headlined by John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Dawson Knox. Allen is also (obviously) a better player now than he was early in his career—if the Allen of old could elevate a lackluster supporting cast, the Allen of today can surely do so.

The veteran’s ability to overcome the team’s self-inflicted adversity will ultimately determine how the Bills perform in the 2024 campaign, but there’s little reason to believe that a significant regression is forthcoming. Buffalo may not be the worldbeater it's looked like at times in recent years this fall, but it will surely be in the conversation come January.

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Kyle Silagyi
KYLE SILAGYI

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