Why you should be hopeful about overlooked Bills CB Kaiir Elam

The Buffalo Bills' former first-round pick has struggled, but he's showing that exceptional talent again this summer.

Oct 16, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Buffalo Bills cornerback Kaiir Elam (24) waves to fans after an interception against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

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Buffalo Bills’ 2022 NFL Draft first-round pick Kaiir Elam has not had the start to his NFL career that he dreamt about as kid, but with new coaching and continued effort, we might see a resurgence from the third-year pro.

When the Bills let go of long-time defensive backs coach John Butler and brought on Jahmile Addae to fill part of his role, many wondered if Elam would positively respond to a new coaching perspective, and returns look promising this early in training camp.

The former Florida Gator has now had an interception in three straight practices, and he is not taking any disrespect.

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Mack Hollins brings so much juice. He just threw a ball at Kaiir Elam to start a scuffle and it felt like it was 100% intended on getting a reaction from the defense. Because the minute the defense started coming back at him he laughed and walked away.

— Matthew Bové (@Matt_Bove) July 29, 2024

A brief training camp dust-up is commonplace and not necessarily noteworthy, but it does show a player whose confidence remains high despite being a first-round pick who has struggled to see the field. Better players have crumpled under early career obstacles, but that does not appear to be the case with Elam. He addressed his unwavering confidence in an interview with Mike Catalana.

Kaiir Elam fielding questions from HOFer @MikeCatalana. Says he is embracing the competition at cornerback. About his playmaking ability, says his confidence in himself and his technique has allowed him to get hands on footballs throughout the offseason and preseason #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/9zwIMetUrM

— alex brasky (@alexbrasky) July 29, 2024

Addae is demonstrating enough belief in Elam to give him unexpected first-team reps in the first few days of training camp. The Bills’ cornerback depth chart might not be as settled as we presumed.

There are positive indicators for Elam beyond self-confidence and a new coach with an open competition approach. Elam’s play last season was probably better than many recall. While limited to 134 pass coverage snaps, Elam finished 18th in Passer Rating Against amongst all CBs who had 100+ such snaps (PFF). To offer context to that statistic, Sauce Gardner, albeit in around 450 more snaps, had a Passer Rating Against of 76.5, and he is widely considered one of the best CBs in the league.

Related: Bills DT praises overlooked offseason addition: 'He's a playmaker'

Elam was not an automatic target when he entered, either. If Elam was a known weakness in coverage, one would expect to see a low Snaps/Target, meaning opponents were targeting the receiver he was responsible for. That isn’t what the stats say, though. Again, for CBs with at least 100+ coverage snaps, Elam ranked 39th out of 152 CBs with a Snaps/Target of 7.6. Some of the best cornerbacks were between 9.4 and 10.8, players like Gardner, Jaylon Johnson, and Jalen Ramsey. Eli Apple was one of the worst performers in this metric getting targeted once every 4.8 coverage snaps.

Penalties will be the biggest mark of Elam’s improvement. The young CB has had issues with getting too grabby, and that remains an area for growth, but it isn’t irredeemable. Continuing with rate stats because of his limited snap count, Elam ranked 119th out of those 152 CBs with 100+ coverage snaps in Snaps/Penalty. Obviously, that is not great, but it amounted to two penalties, so that rate could easily improve if he has developed his footwork, which is the primary cause of him getting rattled while in coverage and “panic” grabbing. This is another area that can get better with confidence and coaching, so this is not justification for closing the door on the young player.

If Elam could build on his encouraging statistics from last season and maintain his momentum from early in training camp, he could become a reliable CB3, which would be a remarkable turnaround for his career to this point.

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