Bills at Kansas City: Why's Buffalo Rare Betting Favorite Over Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs?

No matter what happens on Sunday, the Buffalo Bills have broken some long-standing bad vibes against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Sorry, Han Solo ... the odds actually look pretty good this time around, at least from a Buffalo Bills perspective.

The Bills (4-1) are on pace to break a long-standing, Missouri-based hex that Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) have had over gambling lines: heading into the two team's highly anticipated AFC showdown at Arrowhead Stadium (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS), Buffalo is currently a three-point favorite per BetMGM's sportsbook, while SuperBook has them at -2.5.

Should those numbers stand by Sunday, Kansas City would be a home underdog for the first time in a game projected to feature Mahomes since he took over as the Chiefs' franchise quarterback in 2018. Kansas City was a three-point underdog for Mahomes' first career start, a meaningless Week 17 matchup at the end of the 2017-18 regular season, but that streak has prevailed for 41 consecutive contests, including postseason showings. That streak does not factor in three contests missing Mahomes, including two due to injury in 2019 and another finale in January 2021.

SuperBook executive director John Murray originally made the crucial contest a "pick 'em," as both sides come in occupying the top two seeds in the AFC (Buffalo prevailing by an advantage in an uneven conference record slate). Once the Bills dismantled the Pittsburgh Steelers by a 38-3 final last weekend ... a game that was over by the third play from scrimmage ... there was no other choice than to snap tradition and give Western New York the edge.

"After seeing what the Bills did to the Steelers (on Sunday), we knew we had to reopen the game with Buffalo favored," Murray told ESPN. "Buffalo is such a complete team on both sides of the ball and very well coached. The Super Bowl is theirs to lose this season, and it really starts with this game."

Murray labeled the AFC showdown as "the best game of the regular season," which stands as high praise considering that the Week 6 slate also features the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles facing off against another one-loss team, the Dallas Cowboys, in Sunday's nightcap. 

"(If Buffalo) win(s) on Sunday and keep(s) (quarterback Josh) Allen healthy, they will very likely have homefield advantage in the AFC playoffs," Murray declared.

Buffalo certainly hopes to reward the faith that the books have placed in them: the Chiefs have been responsible for the team's demise in each of the past two seasons. Last year's postseason get-together in the AFC Divisional playoffs was an instant classic, albeit one that ended in Kansas City's favor by the 42-36 final. The teams exchanged the lead three times over the final two minutes of regulation game time before the Chiefs prevailed with a game-winning touchdown in overtime. That victory followed a 38-24 triumph in the previous season's AFC title game.

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Geoff Magliocchetti is on Twitter @GeoffJMags

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