ESPN predicts big game for reliable Bills WR vs. Chiefs

ESPN believes that Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir could be in for a big game when his team hosts the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11.

Kyle Silagyi | 2 Hours Ago

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Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir was so frequently mentioned as a “sleeper” breakout candidate in the leadup to the 2024 NFL season that, by the time the campaign commenced, few were sleeping on him. There were genuine expectations for the third-year pass-catcher ahead of the new season, and he’s more than lived up to them through its first 10 games, currently leading the Bills in receptions (48) and receiving yards (529).

The 24-year-old has already set career highs in targets and receptions and looks well on his way to setting new top marks in receiving yards and touchdowns, with his efficiency and reliability through the first part of the season reaching historic levels. He currently ranks first among NFL wide receivers in catch percentage at 88.9%, with the next closest wideout being Kansas City Chiefs pass-catcher Justin Watson at 83.3%; Watson has been targeted just 18 times this year, 36 fewer than Shakir, going to show just how mind-boggling the Buffalo receiver’s reliability has been through 10 games. In fact, if the campaign were to end today, his 88.9% catch rate would be the best single-season catch percentage in league history.

He’s simply an ever-reliable easy-button for quarterback Josh Allen, and some prognosticators, thus, expect him to play a prominent role in Buffalo’s Week 11 clash with the Chiefs in what may be its biggest game of the year. ESPN feels as though Shakir could be in for a monster game this Sunday, noting his yards-after-catch expertise and Kansas City’s difficulties when it comes to mitigating YAC.

“The Chiefs' defense is tough to get past, but 53% of the receiving yards they allow come after the catch -- the sixth-highest rate in the league,” the outlet published in a Saturday article. “That could be good news for Shakir, who has the second-most yards after the catch (YAC) of all wideouts this season (407). He gets those extra yards for two reasons. First, looking at the 11 route types that lead to the highest percentage of yards after the catch -- including screens, drags, flats and hitches -- Shakir runs them at the highest rate in the league. Second, he has a 72 YAC score, per ESPN's receiver scores, meaning he generates more YAC than expected based on the situation at the time of reception. It could be a useful recipe against the Chiefs.”

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Shakir, per PFF, currently ranks fourth in the NFL among receivers with at least 15 targets in average yards-after-catch per reception at 8.5. He has the shortest average depth of target among receivers in that criteria at 3.7 yards, but his YAC illustrates just how effective he is with the ball in his hands; he very much turns into a running back after reeling in passes, appearing patient as time seemingly slows down to allow him to assess the most effective way to pick up additional yards. This presents an issue for each opponent each week, but he could be particularly troublesome for Kansas City given its struggles to limit YAC as highlighted by ESPN.

Shakir has shined in his past outings against the Chiefs, most recently catching seven passes for 44 yards and a score in Buffalo’s 2023 AFC Divisional Round bout with Kansas City. He’ll have a tremendous opportunity to build on this outing this week, as Allen figures to lean on Shakir with both Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid sidelined with injuries.

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