Bills WR Keon Coleman named fantasy football sleeper, compared to 2023 breakout star

ESPN has identified Buffalo Bills rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman as a fantasy football sleeper, comparing him to a breakout star from the 2023 NFL season.

Kyle Silagyi | Jul 13, 2024

Oct 28, 2023; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) warms up during the first half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

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The Buffalo Bills shifted their offensive philosophy in the 2024 offseason, moving away from a long-standing strategy that saw them funnel their aerial production through one elite target and opt for a more egalitarian passing game approach predicated on elite play from their quarterback and tight end.

Sound familiar?

If not, then it should, as it’s a page almost directly ripped from the Kansas City Chiefs’ playbook. The near-dynasty team has been the NFL’s strongest over the past several years, but it made a significant change to its roster in the 2022 offseason when it moved on from then-three-time All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill. The decision left otherworldly quarterback Patrick Mahomes with a weapons group consisting of tight end Travis Kelce and a bunch of, for lack of a better term, guys at wide receiver whom the Chiefs expected their signal-caller to elevate.

And he’s done just that. The Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls since Hill’s departure, with their offense still producing at an elite level thanks to the presence of Mahomes and Kelce. The quarterback has even elevated some wide receivers along the way, namely 2023 second-round pick Rashee Rice, who emerged down the stretch last season before finishing his rookie campaign with 79 receptions for 938 yards and seven touchdowns.

Buffalo will soon ask of quarterback Josh Allen what Kansas City has asked of Mahomes over the past two years—produce with a hodgepodge group of pass-catchers led by a target-eating tight end. The team moved on from previous lead wideouts Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis in the offseason, leaving second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid as their returning receptions leader. His role figures to grow significantly in 2024, with the team’s revamped receiving corps headlined by the likes of third-year contributor Khalil Shakir, free agent signee Curtis Samuel, and second-round rookie Keon Coleman expected to pick up the rest of the slack.

If the Chiefs’ formula is to be perfectly transposed onto the Bills, Coleman would likely be Buffalo’s on-field answer to Rice, as the former’s situation entering his rookie situation is nearly identical to the latter’s from a year ago. Both Coleman and Rice were second-round draft picks who had question marks looming over their games, but both entered offenses helmed by elite quarterbacks with a bevy of available targets. Thus, one could reasonably expect Coleman’s on-field situation to progress similarly to that of Rice; his immediate production may be limited in the Bills’ makeshift receiving corps, but his role within the offense—and thus, impact—could grow down the stretch as he adapts to the NFL and earns Allen’s trust.

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; San Francisco 49ers safety Logan Ryan (33) tackles Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) during the second quarter of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay has recently noted their similar situations, writing that Coleman could be “this season’s Rashee Rice” as a young receiver who emerged in a lackluster receiving corps.

“Same as Rice, Coleman joins the league as a second-round pick and is an intriguing prospect thanks to a favorable landing spot,” Clay wrote. “. . . [Buffalo’s receiving corps] is not an intimidating group. A slow start for Coleman is reasonable to expect (he turned 21 in May), but he's a big, strong receiver with big-play ability and a smooth path to a No. 1 gig in an offense led by Josh Allen. We shouldn't be surprised if he quickly emerges as a lineup lock.”

Buffalo has all but copied Kansas City’s homework with regard to offensive structural philosophy to this point, so it’s likely hoping that Coleman will ultimately become its version of Rice on the field (we cannot stress that enough). Keep an eye on the former Florida State Seminole in your fantasy drafts, as while you may not pencil him into your lineups early in the season, he could be a weekly lock come playoff time.

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