Massive third-year breakout projected for promising Bills WR

One outlet is projecting a significant third-year leap for Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir.

Oct 26, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir warms up before a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports / Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

We’re not necessarily great in the kitchen, but from a 30,000-foot view, featuring a demonstrably talented wide receiver who has shown promise in his scheme and with his quarterback in a more advantageous situation to succeed seems like a recipe for success.

This is the circumstance that Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir finds himself in entering the 2024 NFL season. The 24-year-old has flashed in limited roles throughout his two professional seasons, catching 49 passes for 772 yards and three touchdowns with the bulk of that production coming down the stretch last year. Previously a consistent and effective complementary piece, Shakir has ascended into a more prominent offensive role entering his third NFL season given the offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis; with 1,929 receiving yards removed from the receiving corps, it will be a combination of Skair, free agent signee Curtis Samuel, and rookie Keon Coleman who will be counted on to replace a significant chunk of that yardage.

Buffalo is, admittedly, putting a tall task on Shakir’s shoulders, but he certainly has the talent necessary to carry the burden; his chemistry with Josh Allen also improved dramatically as last season progressed (culminating in a six-reception, 105-yard outing in a Week 18 win over the Miami Dolphins), suggesting that he and the otherworldly quarterback are set to pick up on the right foot entering the 2024 campaign.

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Shakir, on paper, looks primed to break out in his third season, and the 33rd Team’s Marcus Mosher has echoed this sentiment. He identified Skakir as a player to watch in a recent article breaking down three wide receivers who may break out in the upcoming campaign.

"For Shakir to take off in 2024, he will need to play more snaps away from the slot," Mosher wrote. "According to TruMedia, Shakir ran 257 of his 332 routes (77.4 percent) from the slot last season. The addition of Curtis Samuel, who also plays in the slot, means the Bills need someone else who can win on the outside. If you just look at the measurables, the 6-foot, 190-pound Shakir compares favorably to Diggs. Diggs has been an outside receiver who can win against press coverage for most of his career. Shakir hasn’t shown that ability yet, but the Bills don't have a choice but to play him on the outside.

"He is dynamic with the ball in his hands and has done a fantastic job creating separation from the slot — now it’s time for his game to evolve. If he can take the next step and become an inside-outside threat, the Bills shouldn’t have any problem replacing Diggs' production."

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Shakir, as Mosher noted, has played the majority of his career snaps in the slot, but his positional versatility was one of his more interesting attributes coming out of Boise State. He took 227 snaps out wide, 112 in the slot, and 27 in the backfield as a junior in 2021, per Pro Football Focus, with this distribution shifting to 161 out wide, 529 in the slot, and 18 in the backfield in 2022. He’s been a slot receiver for much of the recent past, but he has the ability to consistently win outside—he’s done so before.

This is where Mosher expects Shakir to take a significant portion of his snaps for Buffalo, even suggesting that Stefon Diggs-like production is possible if the wideout realizes his promise; Diggs averaged 111 receptions for 1,343 yards throughout his three seasons with the Bills.

That potential production is perhaps a bit too optimistic for Shakir, but given his expanded role, he should easily construct a career year—if he doesn’t, Buffalo’s aerial attack may experience significant growing pains.