History says Bills should be on edge vs. Jets in first game post-Robert Saleh firing

The Buffalo Bills will be the first club to play the New York Jets post-Robert Saleh firing. Should they be concerned about facing a rejuvenated team?

Kyle Silagyi | 3 Hours Ago

Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

In this story:

Buffalo Bills | News, Scores, Schedules & Standings

The Buffalo Bills will be the first team to welcome Jeff Ulbrich to the NFL head coaching ranks, as they’re the next team on the New York Jets’ schedule after their Tuesday firing of head coach Robert Saleh. The former sideline boss’ unexpected dismissal brought with it the promotion of Ulbrich, the team’s long-time defensive coordinator, to interim head coach; one may wonder why a 2-3 team would fire a defensive-minded head coach in favor of his multi-year defensive coordinator with zero head coaching experience, but the Jets are not historically known for making necessarily rational decisions.

Perhaps the vibes truly were that putrid. Perhaps owner Woody Johnson felt as though the team wasn’t going to accomplish anything of note with Saleh as its head coach. It definitely didn’t have anything to do with Aaron Rodgers.

The why is truly irrelevant when it comes to the Bills, as all the team can focus on is their Week 6 Monday Night Football clash with the Jets at MetLife Stadium next week. The bout will be Ulbrich’s first game as an NFL head coach, which raises the question—should the Buffalo faithful be concerned about New York responding to a change in leadership and playing well under Ulbrich to move both teams to 3-3 on the season?

While not specific to this particular firing, there is some historical precedent to the idea of teams responding to a head coach firing and winning the next game on their schedule. A 2023 Sportico article by Lev Akabas found that clubs had a record of 16-21 in their first game under a new leader after firing their previous head coach during the regular season (winning 43% of the time). The same article found that teams won a combined 27% of their games prior to making a coaching change and won 39% of their contests after a switch.

Though it’s not as though coaching changes turn mediocre teams into momentary juggernauts, there is something to the idea of a change in leadership providing a spark, the +16% swing in winning percentage proving that. Should Buffalo worry about the phenomenon occurring again next week? Perhaps; the Jets are an immensely talented team on both sides of the ball, and giving that group a bit of added motivation and inspiration does not necessarily bode well for any team lining up against it. Also consider the fact that Josh Allen has strangely struggled against New York in the recent past (posting sub-60% completion percentages in three of their last five meetings while throwing six interceptions), and one could forgive a Buffalo fan for being concerned.

Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

That said, the Bills can’t focus on the New York coaching change as they prepare for their Week 6 bout. Buffalo itself is in the midst of a two-game skid and has not looked particularly strong throughout their past two contests; getting caught up in the hubbub emanating from East Rutherford will only prevent the team from adequately preparing for the matchup. The Bills are the team with more continuity and (in theory) composure, and despite the talent of New York, Buffalo should have the advantage as it readies itself for Week 6.

Week 6 is a crucial contest for each team, as the winner will become the leader of the AFC East. The Bills can’t afford to get lost in the wave of chaos and allow Ulbrich to get his head coaching career off on the right foot.

— Enjoy free coverage of the Bills from Buffalo Bills on SI —