Sweeping offensive changes are not needed following Bills’ ugly Week 4 loss

Some are calling for schematic or personnel changes following the Buffalo Bills' Week 4 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. This seems like an overreaction.

Kyle Silagyi | Sep 30, 2024

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The immediate reaction after a 35-10 loss in which a team compiled just 236 yards of offense and went three-of-13 on third down is to pound the panic button.

It’s a justifiable response, especially after a Buffalo Bills’ Week 4 defeat at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens that was as discouraging as it was. The offense couldn’t get much of anything going in the first half, posting just three points through the first and second frames as Baltimore’s offense, conversely, moved the ball with ease against Buffalo’s depleted defense, entering halftime with 21 points and nearly 300 yards of offense.

And even when the Bills’ offense started to show signs of life in the second half and Josh Allen started to do things that only Josh Allen can do, the unit shot itself in the foot with an egregious second-quarter trick play that led not only to the signal-caller taking a less-than-desirable shot, but a turnover and subsequent Ravens score.

It was an ugly, ugly game that featured a bevy of inexcusable mistakes on both sides of the ball… but it’s not time to hit the panic button.

It’s fine if you want to put it in the Amazon cart and have it on the ready for future weeks, but sweeping changes are not necessary after Buffalo’s first loss of the 2024 season, especially on offense. Posting 10 points and looking generally lifeless in a game that would have all but affirmed the Bills’ status as the best team in the NFL is anything but promising, but it’s important not to be reactionary and overcorrect to what, on paper, is an outlier, especially considering the proficiency with which the team’s offense was operating throughout the first three weeks of the season.

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A portion of the Buffalo faithful is questioning the practicality of the team’s ‘everyone eats’ offensive approach following the four-possession loss, with some even suggesting that general manager Brandon Beane should pursue a high-caliber wide receiver via trade. This is not only financially unfeasible given the team’s current lack of salary cap space, but it’s an extreme overreaction predicated on recency bias.

The Bills’ offense was dynamite throughout the first three weeks of the season. Allen was the undisputed NFL MVP frontrunner as Buffalo was averaging a league-high 37.3 points per game, the ‘everyone eats’ approach that it oft-spoke about throughout the offseason showing early promise as Allen connected with 10 different pass-catchers throughout the undefeated three-game stretch.

To call for the team that had one of, if not the, best offense in the NFL entering Week 4 to make sweeping schematic and personnel changes after one (albeit ugly) loss is simply an overreaction. The Bills spent the entire summer installing their (thus far quite productive) scheme with the players currently on their roster. Allen has spent several months developing rapports with the weapons at his disposal; to give up assets and change the offensive philosophy of a 3-1 team (that’s still second in the NFL in points through four games) because of one loss is simply not how competitive teams operate, especially not in September.

Critics advocating for the addition of a premier option or significant schematic changes may point to Buffalo’s opponents through the first three weeks of the season and suggest that its offensive production was inflated due to its (in hindsight) favorable early-season schedule; the ‘everyone eats’ approach isn’t actually a good idea because the Bills ‘didn’t play anyone,’ and the offense crumbled the first time it played a quality defense. This idea loses a bit of credence once one remembers that Baltimore had allowed the most passing yards in the NFL entering Week 4 (875).

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One could argue that this only proves Buffalo’s ineptitude, but it more so indicates just how much of an outlier this game was; the Bills aren’t going to post fewer than 230 yards of offense every week. Josh Allen isn’t going to be held under 200 passing yards very often. Buffalo's offensive line (which has been one of the best in the league thus far) isn't going to have their quarterback running for his life all night all of the time. James Cook isn’t going to be held under 40 rushing yards every game. The offense is not going to make a habit of scoring only 10 points per game; in fact, this is the first time since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator in Week 11 of last season that the team has been held under 20 points.

It’s fine to have questions and concerns following a discouraging loss; it’s a natural development. However, it’s simply irresponsible to call for significant philosophical and/or personnel alterations following a single loss, especially considering that all available evidence suggests that this is an outlier as opposed to the norm. It’s a conversation that can be had in earnest in future weeks if the offense continues to slide, but it’s simply a bad-faith discussion at this point.

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