Bills Central

This one play showcases the Bills' offensive evolution

BREAKING NEWS: The Buffalo Bills completed a screen pass for a first down, but that might not be as big of news as you thought.

Chris Seth

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
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The Buffalo Bills faced off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in their second preseason contest of the 2024 campaign, and while the game was a challenge offensively, there was a successful play that many Bills’ fans might not have recognized.

For years, Bills Mafia has clamored for a better package of screens. It feels like every playoff team the Bills face has a set of screens evidently designed by a collaboration of Andy Reid, Robert Oppenheimer, and Littlefinger - devilishly genius plays that beguile the defense for significant gains - and what makes it worse is it feels like the Bills can never unlock that same treasure chest. At least that is how it feels, but more on that later.

Against the Steelers, the Bills ran a screen late in the third quarter; you’re forgiven if you didn't recognize it.

Related: This one play showcases the cohesive nature of Bills' WR corps

The Play: Q3, 1:17, 2 & 6 from the -20, score BUF 6 - PIT 3

Pre-Snap

Screen 1

The Bills come out with Ben DiNucci in shotgun with 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers). When they first line up, Justin Shorter (18) is outside the numbers to the boundary side (top side in the image), and Tyrell Shavers (80) is in the slot. On the field side (bottom side in the image), the Bills initially have K.J. Hamler (19) just inside the numbers and Tre' McKitty (83) as a detached tight end. Shorter is waved to go wide to the field, setting up a 3x1 set. Darrynton Evans (37) is the running back.

Pittsburgh starts with four players on the line, but when Shorter motions across, linebacker Julius Welschof (48) turns from a coverage position to a rush. The linebacker on the other side of the formation, Jacoby Windman (45), signals to the safety that he is switching into coverage, and cornerback Corey Trice slides wide to pick up Shorter. The safeties are showing middle of the field open (MOFO) or a two-high structure.

Post Snap

Screen 2

With the snap of the ball, left tackle Ryan Van Demark (74) immediately breaks wide, while left guard Alec Anderson blocks the Steelers’ defensive tackle. Center Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62) initially blocks the nose tackle but quickly releases to stream down towards the screen. Right guard Richard Gouraige looks to help right tackle Tylan Grable (68) but also peels off to assist the screen.

For the pass catchers, McKitty immediately moves to block while Shavers runs a slant that eventually curls toward the screen.

Only four of the linemen rush, and Welschof picks up Evans out of the backfield. Pittsburgh's other two linebackers take a step back.

Screen 3

Hamler turns toward DiNucci at the snap and takes two slide steps toward his endzone. DiNucci sidearms the pass around Pittsburgh defender Kyron Johnson (53). Hamler brings down the slightly high pass and turns upfield.

At this point, the play design is set up very well if McKitty and Van Demark can manage to block Windmon (45) and one of them peel off to the safety Ryan Watts (29).

Screen 4

But Windman (circled) does a nice job of working through McKitty’s block to force Hamler back inside. Hamler accelerates forward to still get the first down and four more yards before Windmon, Watts, and Tyler Matakevich (44) combine for the tackle.

That, Bills Mafia, was what a successful screen looks like. While Bills fans, this author included, have clamored for a better screen game, most of the stats say Buffalo is middling at worst in the category.

Related: Bills HC Sean McDermott concerned, but realistic about preseason scoring woes

2023 Screen Passes (SIS), rank in parentheses:

  • Atts: 52 (25)
  • Net Yds: 297 (20)
  • Comp %: 90.4% (9)
  • On-Target %: 86.5% (22)
  • Yards/Att: 5.7 (13)
  • Yards/Game: 19.8 (14)
  • Positive %:44.2% (8)
  • Boom %*: 7.7% (29)

*Boom % is the rate at which a team generates a play worth 1.0 points or more in EPA.

They did not use them very often in 2023, but the average yards the Bills gained on those attempts was respectable. The only truly bad stat in the group was the Boom Rate, where only the Bears, Steelers, and Giants were worse (Funnily, the Bears attempted the seventh most screen passes in 2023 [70] and somehow managed to have the worst overall EPA on screens [-29.48]).

EPA and EPA/Play

An advanced screen stat intentionally left out of the list above indicates perhaps too much criticism has been levied at the Bills for their screens or lack thereof. The league does not perform as well as a whole on screens as we may have thought, especially in EPA.

Kansas City is at the top of most of the screen stats, because of course they are. Andy Reid seemingly has a new screen package for every game, but the rest of the NFL is not lighting the field on fire. Only two teams had a positive play percentage above 50% in screens (KC and SF), and only seven teams had an overall positive EPA on the season with screen passes (KC, SF, GB, SEA, ATL, DAL, and TB). The Bills ranked a middle-of-the-pack 13th in overall EPA in screens and 14th in EPA/Att (-0.73), but their season-long production garnered -3.78 in EPA. The Bills were not great in screens, but they’re not as bad compared to the league in production as was assumed for a play type often considered an “easy button.”

If Joe Brady can bring a successful screen game to Buffalo, it could put Josh Allen and the Bills near the top of the list in screen production and help replace some of the receiving talent that left this offseason.

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Chris Seth
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