Analyzing the Bills' over-under win total for 2024 NFL season

FanDuel has released its 2024 NFL regular season over-under win totals, placing the Buffalo Bills at 10.5.

Dec 31, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott looks on from the sidelines during the second half against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re among those who feel as though reports of the Buffalo Bills’ demise have been exaggerated, you have the opportunity to put your money where your mouth is.

FanDuel Sportsbook recently revealed its 2024 NFL regular season over-under win totals for each club, placing Buffalo’s total at 10.5. For those unfamiliar with how over-unders work, users who bet on the team to finish over 10.5 wins would receive payouts if the Bills finish with 11 or more wins in the new season. Users who bet on them to finish under 10.5 wins would receive payouts if Buffalo were to finish with 10 or fewer wins.

The Bills are slightly favored to finish below this total (-138) as of the time of publication; a $10 bet on the under would currently offer a $17.25 payout. Buffalo’s odds of finishing above 10.5 wins are currently at +112; a $10 bet on the over would offer a $21.20 payout if it were to hit.

The Bills have been assigned the highest over-under win total in the AFC East; the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are both listed at 9.5 while the New England Patriots have an over-under of 4.5.

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Buffalo’s win total seems fair upon initial inspection; the team has supplanted 10 wins in each of the past four campaigns, but it did see significant turnover in the 2024 offseason, recentering its core around young players while moving on from stalwart starters like Stefon Diggs, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Gabriel Davis, and Mitch Morse. 

That said, quarterback Josh Allen is still at the helm of the offense, and the former All-Pro has a bevy of promising pass-catchers at his disposal. Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir both shined down the stretch of the 2023 campaign, and they project to factor prominently into a revamped passing attack that also includes rookie Keon Coleman and free agent signee Curtis Samuel. Buffalo figures to spread the ball around quite a bit in the 2024 season, with offensive coordinator Joe Brady recently stating that “everyone is going to eat;” the pass-catcher group is inexperienced, but the talent and potential are clear.

Combine the offensive potential with the fact that the team is returning nine of 11 defensive starters (including former All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano, who missed most of the 2023 season with a leg injury), and it’s clear that Buffalo figures to be stout yet again in the upcoming campaign. If you do plan to bet on Allen and the Bills in the 2024 season, please do so responsibly.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.