NFL writer advises you to bet the under on Bills' win total in 2024 NFL season

Bleacher Report is taking the under on the Buffalo Bills' win total in the 2024 NFL season, but here's why you should reconsider.

Bills head coach Sean McDermott celebrates a turnover on downs by the defense after an interception put the Falcons in good field position. / Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK

Sean McDermott knows how to win in the regular season.

Say what you will about the Buffalo Bills head coach when the lights are brightest in the playoffs, but the tenured sideline boss is objectively adept in overcoming regular season adversity and leading his team to triumph. He’s taken Buffalo to the postseason in six of his seven seasons at its helm, winning double-digit contests in five of his seasons in charge and 11 or more games in his last four.

The Bills reworked their roster after another premature postseason exit in 2023, but a large number of pundits are still bullish on the team in the upcoming campaign given the presence of McDermott, quarterback Josh Allen, and the general strength of the roster. Buffalo may not be any better positioned to get over the hump this fall than it was last, but it still figures to be in postseason conversations come January.

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Bleacher Report’s Maurice Moton is a little less optimistic about the Bills’ aspirations in the 2024 campaign. In a recent article predicting whether each NFL team would finish above or below its current over-under win total, Moton wrote that Buffalo will finish with under 10.5 wins this season, noting the team’s roster-wide offseason turnover.

“The Buffalo Bills aren't going to self-destruct after trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, but their offense took a notable hit after that transaction,” Moton wrote. “Unless rookie second-round wideout Keon Coleman becomes an instant star, we will find out if Josh Allen needs a No. 1 wide receiver to post Pro Bowl-level passing numbers. Allen still has a decent pass-catching group that includes Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mack Hollins. Yet one has to wonder who Allen will target in crucial moments of games and in 3rd-and-long situations.

“As of now, Buffalo has two new starting safeties. The club needs cornerback Christian Benford to take a third-year leap. Fellow cornerback Rasul Douglas has to replicate his strong performances from the second half of the 2023 campaign (post-trade) to solidify the boundary. All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano will attempt to bounce back from a torn ACL and a leg fracture. Buffalo may be a solid team in the upcoming campaign, though bettors should take the under on 10.5 wins with notable changes and multiple question marks across the club's roster.”

Bills head coach Sean McDermott waits to hear the result of his challenge on the play. The original call was overturned, the Bills won the challenge. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee /Rochester Democrat

Moton’s analysis is not necessarily incorrect; the Bills roster objectively did see significant turnover in the 2024 offseason, as the team moved on from stalwart starters like Stefon Diggs, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, and Gabriel Davis. Buffalo hopes to replace their production with returning contributors, value free agents, and young players, and while all of these successors are talented, they’re comparatively unproven.

And while it’s easy to get hung up on the (particularly offensive) turnover, the new weapons group is talented and varied in terms of skill sets. Allen should be able to spread the ball around and take an egalitarian approach to aerial production; as per Moton’s question about who the quarterback will target in clutch situations, the answer may very well be himself. Allen has a penchant for taking off and making something happen with his legs in key situations, and while one could argue that this isn’t sustainable, it’s been quite tenable throughout the past several seasons.

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Moton mentions the retooled defense, but it returns eight starters, with McDermott also returning to oversee the unit. And that’s perhaps the biggest qualm with Moton’s conclusion—McDermott is historically able to lead his teams to more regular season wins than expected. Think back to 2017 when he led a hodgepodge Buffalo roster (that was accused by many of tanking) to nine wins and a Wild Card berth. He dragged a truly awful Bills team to six wins in 2018 before winning 10 contests in 2019, starting a still ongoing stretch of double-digit win campaigns and postseason berths.

Looking into the bigger picture, his coaching efforts within individual seasons are also impressive; his team was 6-6 entering the bye week in the 2023 season, and he rattled off five straight wins (against the likes of Kansas City, Dallas, and Miami) to finish 11-6 and win the AFC East for a fourth consecutive year. 

As Moton notes, there are genuine question marks looming over Buffalo as it enters its 2024 campaign. That said, it’s difficult to comfortably say that the team will finish with fewer than 11 wins given its overall strength and McDermott’s demonstrated prowess in guiding his team to regular season success. 

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