Bills Playoff Odds: First-Round Bye Chances Skyrocket With Win vs. Jets?

The Buffalo Bills are inching closer to a first-round bye. What do they need to do to get there?

Jeremy Brener | Dec 11, 2022

With just five games left in the season, the Buffalo Bills control their own destiny.

Sitting atop the AFC standings in Week 14, the Bills' path to the No. 1 seed is simple. Just win.

However, with four of those games against playoff hopefuls, the Bills' path to the top isn't as clear cut as it looks on paper. And the path to the finish begins Sunday with a rematch against the New York Jets.

The Jets are one of three teams this season to beat the Bills, so Buffalo getting revenge would do wonders to its chances at securing home field.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Buffalo has a 45-percent chance at remaining on top of the AFC standings at season's end. But those odds improve to at least 52 percent with a win Sunday. Depending on other outcomes involving teams alongside the Bills in the playoff race, that number could grow.

With a loss, the Bills' chances go south, giving Buffalo just an 18 percent chance at the top seed. In this instance, the Kansas City Chiefs would see their chances move up to nearly 70 percent should they beat the Denver Broncos, who are 3-9 this season.

The AFC playoff race won't be decided this week, but the outcome of Sunday's game could go a long way in the eventual results.

The Jets and Bills play Sunday at 1 p.m. inside Highmark Stadium.

Follow Jeremy Brener on Twitter @JeremyBrener.

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Published Dec 11, 2022

JEREMY BRENER

Jeremy Brener is an editor, writer and social media manager for several Fan Nation websites. His work has also been featured in 247 Sports and SB Nation as a writer and podcaster. Brener has been with Fan Nation since 2021. Brener grew up in Houston, going to Astros, Rockets and Texans games as a kid. He moved to Orlando in 2016 to go to college and pursue a degree. He hosts "The Dream Take" podcast covering the Rockets, which has produced over 350 episodes since March 2020. Brener graduated in May 2020 from the University of Central Florida with a Bachelor's degree in Broadcast Journalism minoring in Sport Business Management. While at UCF, Brener worked for the school's newspaper NSM.today and "Hitting the Field," a student-run sports talk show and network. He was the executive producer for "Hitting the Field" from 2019-20. During his professional career, Brener has covered a number of major sporting events including the Pro Bowl, March Madness and several NBA and NFL games. As a fan, Brener has been to the 2005 World Series, 2010 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 NCAA National Championship between the Villanova Wildcats and North Carolina Tar Heels. Now, Brener still resides in the Central Florida area and enjoys writing, watching TV, hanging out with friends and going to the gym. Brener can be followed on Twitter @JeremyBrener. For more inquiries, please email jeremybrenerchs@gmail.com.