Titans vs. Bills: 5 keys to victory in NFL Week 7

The Buffalo Bills look to start another winning streak as they host the 1-4 Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon. We have five keys to a win for the home team.

Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images

This article was produced in conjunction with Cover 1, a leading voice in making the intricacies of Buffalo Bills football digestible. Be sure to subscribe to their YouTube channel and podcast feeds.

---

The Buffalo Bills are 4-2 to kick off the 2024 NFL season after a 23-20 road win against the New York Jets last Monday. That win kept them on top of the AFC East and gave them a little gap to the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo looks to keep that lead, or see it grow, on Sunday when it hosts the Tennessee Titans at 1:00 PM. Here are five keys to victory when the Bills return to Orchard Park for the first time in almost a month.

Turnovers, Tarts, and Tiramisu

Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images

No, this isn't about tasty treats... that is, unless you're a member of the Bills' defense taking the ball away from Tennessee. Entering Sunday, the Titans are 31st in the league (second highest) in giveaways, with two per game. They are also 29th in the league in takeaways with just .6 per game. Add those two numbers together, and you have a turnover margin of 1.4 per game, which is the 31st overall. Take the free possessions and profit!

Related: AFC Analytical Power Rankings: Numbers tell truth about Bills entering Week 7

3 and Out

Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Titans are one of the worst teams in the NFL at converting on third down at just 29.31%; that is the league's third-worst conversion percentage. It could be a get-right game for the Bills, who are awful on third-and-long. Buffalo has faced 12 plays of third and 10 to 15 yards; it has allowed five first downs on such occasions. That 41.67% failure rate is the worst in the NFL. Now is as good a time as any to figure it out.

Down in Front

Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The Titans are one of the worst teams across the board when it comes to blocking, per ESPN's win rates. Tennessee is 30th in pass block win rate and 24th in run block win rate. Seattle, New England, and Houston are the only other teams to be outside the top 23 in both categories. Buffalo should have plenty of chances to get after Will Levis.

Stack the Box

Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tennessee can not pass the ball. The team is setting the forward pass back to the 1940s. The Titans are 31st in passing yards per game at 135. They only pass the ball 28.4 times per game, that's 26th in the league. Their 5.5 yards per pass attempt is 29th. Going deeper into analytics, the Titans are 30th in passing DVOA at -21.1%. For perspective, the Browns and the Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins are the only teams worse in passing DVOA.

Related: Top media analysts weigh in on the impact Bills' acquisition of Amari Cooper

Health

Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

It's been a while since we thought health was a net positive for Buffalo, but that could be the case on Sunday. Entering Friday, the Titans were missing nose tackle T'Vondre Sweat, cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, and running back Tyjae Spears, among others, from practice. A few names that could be impactful if they can't go on Sunday. As for the Bills, it was only DaQuan Jones who was listed out on Thursday for "rest." It would be a nice change for Buffalo to enter a game as the healthier team.

— Enjoy free coverage of the Bills from Buffalo Bills on SI —

More Buffalo Bills News:

• Titans vs. Bills: 5 storylines to watch in NFL Week 7

• Brandon Beane puts Buffalo Bills' $20 million kicker on notice

• What QB Josh Allen said about new Bills WR Amari Cooper

• How much should fans expect new Bills WR Amari Cooper to play in Week 7?

• Bills QB Josh Allen takes encouraging step in recovery from hand injury