Bills’ updated percentage chances of earning No. 1 seed in AFC, winning Super Bowl

The New York Times feels as though the Buffalo Bills are the second most likely team to finish atop the AFC.

Kyle Silagyi | Nov 25, 2024

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A spot in the proverbial dance is ultimately all that’s necessary for a team to make a run at the Super Bowl, but entering Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season, the Buffalo Bills have a decent shot at finishing atop their conference.

The Bills, per The New York Times’ NFL playoff machine, currently have a 27% chance to finish as the No. 1 seed in the AFC and earn a first-round postseason bye (the odds were last updated on the morning of November 25). They’re one of two teams in the conference with 3% or greater odds of earning the conference’s top spot, with the Kansas City Chiefs being the other at 69%; Buffalo currently holds the tiebreaker over Kansas City thanks to its Week 11 head-to-head win.

NYT projects the Chiefs to ultimately finish the season with a stronger record than the Bills and, thus, earn the AFC’s top seed; the outlet expects Kansas City to conclude the campaign with a 14-3 record while projecting Buffalo to finish 13-4. Looking at the currently 9-2 Bills’ remaining schedule, however, it’s difficult to project where the two additional expected losses are coming from; Week 15 against the dominant Detroit Lions could present a challenge, but aside from the NFC leader, none of the remaining teams on their schedule (the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, and New York Jets) currently have a winning record. Games obviously aren’t played on paper, but every single bout remaining on Buffalo’s 2024 slate is winnable.

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The same could also be said for Kansas City, which is the only team in the AFC that holds its top-seed destiny in its own hands. That said, the Chiefs do have games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Denver Broncos, all of whom currently occupy playoff spots; if Kansas City drops one of these games while the Bills continue to win, Buffalo will become the frontrunner for a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the AFC Championship.

The Bills’ 27% chance of earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC perhaps seems a bit low given their schedule compared to that of Kansas City and their possession of the tiebreaker, but only time will tell how the games play out. Buffalo, per NYT, has a <99% chance of making the playoffs, <99% of winning the AFC East (where it currently holds a four-game lead), and a 13% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

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