Bills earn middling retrospective grade for signing of Von Miller

One outlet has given the Buffalo Bills a middling hindsight grade for their 2022 signing of defensive end Von MIller.

Sep 19, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller (40) warms up before a game against the Tennessee Titans at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports / Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Hindsight is 20/20 is a cliché for a reason—it’s often accurate. Viewing past events through the lens of the present affords us knowledge of their consequences and ramifications; in other words, we can judge whether a decision was a good one because we know how it panned out.

Hindsight, however, can often lead to revisionist history—just because a decision did not pan out as expected does not mean the logic for the initial decision was not sound. The Buffalo Bills’ 2022 signing of Von Miller has fallen victim to revisionism in Bleacher Report’s recent article re-grading the 10 biggest free agent signings of the past decade; writer Matt Holder gives the signing a middling “C,” noting the pass-rusher’s recent decline in ability.

“The Bills' decision to sign a 33-year-old to a six-year, $120 million ($45 million guaranteed) contract was head-scratching at the time and hasn't paid off,” Holder wrote. “Miller got off to a hot start in Buffalo, racking up eight sacks in 11 games, but a torn ACL on Thanksgiving cut his season short and forced him to miss the team's playoff run.

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“The injury also resulted in Miller missing the beginning of the 2023 campaign as he participated in 12 games with zero starts, compiling just three total tackles and no sacks for the first time in his career. Heading into this season and his mid-30s, the 13-year pro projects to be an expensive situational pass-rusher.”

It’s unfair to describe the initial signing of Miller as “head-scratching,” especially when one considers the context of the acquisition. Buffalo was a few months removed from a heartbreaking AFC Divisional Round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in which it led with just 13 ticks remaining on the clock, with general manager Brandon Beane identifying the team’s lack of an elite pass-rusher and ‘closer’ as the biggest hurdle preventing them from getting over the proverbial hump. The team addressed this deficiency by signing the NFL’s active all-time sack leader.

It was a completely sound move that made total football sense. Some questioned the Bills’ decision to give a then-32-year-old player a six-year deal, but a quick look at the contract revealed that it was something closer to a three-year commitment. 

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Buffalo needed an elite defensive end. It signed one of the best pass-rushers in NFL history. What is “head-scratching” about that?

The move paid immediate dividends for the Bills, with Miller, as Holder notes, tallying eight sacks through his first 11 games before tearing his ACL midway through the 2022 season. He’s not yet been able to reclaim his former glory, notching just three tackles and zero sacks in 12 games last year.

The retrospective “C” grade seems fair, but that’s only because of circumstances outside of Miller’s—and the team’s—control. To suggest that the team was misguided in its initial signing of Miller is to overlook reality and the context of the situation at the time. Holder is correct in his assessment that Miller now projects as an expensive situational defender, but his contract is more palatable now than the one he initially inked; he took a pay cut in the 2024 offseason, reworking to an incentive-laden deal with a $1.5 million base salary. There’s a potential out after the 2024 season.