Explaining why new Buffalo Bills' WR is ideal fantasy football sleeper pick

Buffalo Bills' wide receiver Curtis Samuel appears primed for a career year due to multiple factors.

Ralph Ventre | Jul 4, 2024

Dec 24, 2023; East Rutherford, NJ; New York Jets linebacker Quincy Williams (56) holds on to Washington Commanders wide receiver Curtis Samuel (4) in the second half at MetLife Stadium. / Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

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There's plenty of excitement around Buffalo Bills' rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman along with "breakout" candidates Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid.

All three figure to play important roles in the Josh Allen-led offense, but none carry as much fantasy football value as free-agent addition Curtis Samuel.

Let me explain why I believe Samuel is a potentially highly-rewarding sleeper pick that seems certain to significantly outperform his average draft position, which should wind up somewhere in the late rounds.

It's all based on the idea that the table is set for the soon-to-be 28-year-old Samuel to produce a career year in 2024.

As it stands, the environment in Buffalo is definitively more conducive to success than any of the wide receiver's previous stops.

First, Josh Allen is easily the best quarterback that has been on Samuel's side. After catching passes from Cam Newton early in his career, Samuel has since been paired with the likes of Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell. The 2017 second-round draft choice has exceeded the 600-yard receiving mark in four of the last five seasons with a different starting quarterback each time.

Allen has brought out the best in his receivers. He made undrafted free agent Robert Foster look like a legitimate NFL receiver in 2018. Cole Beasley enjoyed the best production of his career while playing with Allen and John Brown was a 1,000-yard receiver in 2019. Stefon Diggs didn't reach his ceiling until joining forces with Buffalo's QB1.

Next, it's important to recognize that Bills' offensive coordinator Joe Brady was the Carolina Panthers' play caller for one season under head coach Matt Rhule. It was that 2020 season that still stands as Samuel's best statistical showing in the pros.

Samuel totaled 1,051 scrimmage yards and caught a career-high 79.4 percent of receiving targets in 2020 with Bridgewater as QB1.

With the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis freeing up 241 combined targets, Samuel will likely see more opportunities than the 97 balls thrown his way in 2020 when he made 77 catches for 851 yards. Both Robby Chosen and DJ Moore eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving mark with Brady as the playcaller.

Allen and Brady make a 1,000-yard receiving season a real possibility for Samuel in 2024. Then, there's the fact that the former Ohio State running back can run the ball effectively in certain situations. He carried 41 times for 200 yards and two touchdowns in 2020.

A multi-faceted threat on what has been one of the NFL's top offenses in recent years is a recipe for fantasy football success. Use a late-round pick on Samuel and thank me later.

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