Bills Predictions: ‘Soft & Overrated’ or NFL-Best 15-2 Record?

The job is to remove some of the “luck factor” by reducing some of the “wart factor.”

The Buffalo Bills are going to build on 2021 and finish 15-2 this year.

The Bills benefited from a soft schedule in 2021 and are, as a result, overrated this year.

Opinions are like noses; most of them smell.

But which of these opinions is valid? And how can smart Bills watchers harbor such divergent evaluations?

On the inarguable upside, Buffalo boasts the best odds to win the Super Bowl, has an NFL MVP candidate in Josh Allen, and has a true-contention roster. … reason enough for USA Today to predict a regular-season runaway with a 15-2 record.

15-2 for the Bills?
6-11 for the Browns?

We've got all your 2022 NFL record projections.https://t.co/jXwDF8vBfQ pic.twitter.com/T9v1pkntgG

— USA TODAY NFL (@usatodaynfl) July 28, 2022

But … 

Our friends at Bills Wire have found what they term “an oppositional view (that) lends itself to a grounded and rational prediction of what the future holds for Buffalo.”

That view starts with numbers via analytics guy Warren Sharp, who cites 2021 trends that might get in the way of 2022 Bills success.

speaking truth about the Bills last year:

played the #1 easiest schedule

faced just 6 teams that made the playoffs (2nd fewest) & won only 2 of 6

won just 4 of 10 games when not winning the turnover battle

and now have the 2nd largest increase in schedule difficult this year pic.twitter.com/ORD9zrcyHA

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 31, 2022

We will argue that in the balance-crazed NFL, there is virtually no such thing as a fluky 11-6 record. At the same time, that does mean there isn’t any luck involved and it does mean there aren’t any warts.

Bills Mafia might be comforted with this thought, though: there is likely nothing that USA Today or Warren Sharp or any “white-noise makers” know about these Bills that the Bills themselves - GM Brandon Beane, coach Sean McDermott and the rest - don’t already know.

And their job is to remove some of the “luck factor” by reducing some of the “wart factor.”