Bills 3 Bold Predictions: Rookies Set for Takeover?

Pro Football Focus revealed its three bold predictions for the Bills this season.

The Buffalo Bills enter the 2022-23 season with lofty expectations on both sides of the ball. And with that, could come similarly lofty predictions about the potential performance of individual players and the team as a whole. 

Pro Football Focus revealed three bold predictions for the Bills Tuesday and seems to have some supreme confidence in Buffalo's top rookie draft choices, as running back James Cook and cornerback Kaiir Elam could be set for major roles. 

Prediction 1: James Cook becomes lead running back

Cook was the team's second-round pick for a reason. He enters a Buffalo running back room that has talent, but an uncertain future makeup as well. 

Buffalo's leading-rusher last season, Devin Singletary, is set to be an unrestricted free agent next offseason. The team could look to deal him in a mid-season trade in order to get some value in return before he potentially walks in 2023. This scenario could play out even quicker if Cooks shows he can replicate the versatile production that resulted in his 11 total touchdowns last season with the championship-winning Georgia Bulldogs.

PFF's analysis:

Cook was drafted to add something different to the Buffalo offense — his after-the-catch ability has been a hot topic among Bills brass — but I believe he can be a better all-around threat than that. Cook reminds me a lot of his older brother, Dalvin, in style, but works with a slightly worse tool set. If James ends up being 80% of the player Dalvin is, with arguably better receiving skills, he will be the best back on Buffalo’s roster and earn himself a bigger workload than the team initially forecasted. Cook averaged 3.8 yards per carry after contact this past season for Georgia, and over a third of his carries resulted in a first down.

Prediction 2: Josh Allen's lowest-graded OL

This bold prediction will likely cause some nerves for Bills fans, but there's reason to optimistic about the protection of quarterback Josh Allen based on last season.

Allen, one of the premier dual-threat quarterbacks in NFL history, is outside the pocket more than most guys at his position. But he was sacked only 26 times last season, just the 15th-most among quarterbacks. 

But the Buffalo offensive line is also already experiencing some uncertainty. The unusual absence of left tackle Dion Dawkins raises questions while the integration of new guys like Roger Saffold, who is getting off to a delayed start in training camp on the non-football injury list following a car accident, makes thing difficult as well. 

PFF's analysis:

Buffalo has employed an admirable strategy in offensive line construction, continuing to attack it with volume without ever overcommitting too many high-value resources. It’s allowed the unit to achieve a perfect “creep back toward average” vision that the PFF NFL Podcast would be proud of. The problem with that is there is a range of outcomes for a group of average linemen that takes the entire group well below average, and the Bills flirted with that at times last year. Buffalo has the best roster in the NFL, but there’s definitely a chance this line starts to become an issue and undermine the rest of the offense.

Prediction 3: Kaiir Elam will have 5-plus interceptions

Elam was the team's first-round pick for a reason. He's set to play a major role next season, a role that could gain more importance with the uncertain Week 1 return of star cornerback Tre'Davious White and the recent training camp injuries of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. 

Elam, who the Bills traded up two spot to select, did show the team his ultra ambition, as he wanted a playbook waiting for him once he got on the plane. But five-or-more interceptions in his rookie season would be quite an overachievement, as he had just five total picks in three seasons at Florida. 

His chances of reaching this number would increase once the Buffalo secondary gets back to full health, as opposing quarterbacks would be more likely to throw in the rookie's direction. 

PFF's analysis:

Tre’Davious White isn’t just one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL, he also takes on one of the toughest roles within a defense in terms of alignment and how he is deployed. He doesn’t necessarily play man coverage every snap, but he will align to the more difficult side of an offense and allow the No. 2 cornerback to benefit from that. Levi Wallace took advantage to carve himself out a starting role and career as an undrafted free agent, but it could allow a talented rookie like Kaiir Elam to use his ball skills to create some turnovers with the targets he will see in 2022. Elam allowed just a 57.5 passer rating into his coverage for his entire college career.