ESPN projects one bright spot as Buffalo Bills' Receiving Corps regresses

The Buffalo Bills, who lost receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, are projected to regress at WR according to ESPN's Mike Clay, but rookie Keon Coleman will be productive.

Nov 11, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) / Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Receiver Keon Coleman's projected production is both attainable and acceptable, but there's a catch (no pun intended).

ESPN analyst Mike Clay's 2024 league-wide projections tabbed Coleman as the Buffalo Bills' receiving yards leader, but the total suggests the offense will experience noticeable regression.

In Clay's simulation, Coleman finishes his rookie campaign with 59 catches for 811 yards and five touchdowns over 15 games. Those numbers are seemingly realistic for the No. 33 overall draft pick, but the idea that they will lead the team is puzzling, to say the least.

First, the Bills have had a 1,000-yard receiver in five consecutive seasons, dating back to John Brown in 2019.

Although Stefon Diggs is gone, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir both have 1,000-yard potential in offensive coordinator Joe Brady's scheme. In one season as Carolina Panthers' OC, Brady presided over a unit that featured Samuel (851) behind DJ Moore (1,193) and Robbie Chosen (1,096) in receiving yards. It's also worth mentioning that Carolina's quarterbacks were Teddy Bridgewater and backup PJ Walker.

A closer look at the 2023 Bills shows that the offense remained effective without much help from Diggs' down the stretch. In a telling stat, first publicized by X user @Ihartitz in late January, Shakir out-gained Diggs by a 462-422 margin over the team's final 10 games despite the latter holding an 80-37 advantage in targets during that span.

As long as quarterback Josh Allen stays healthy (Clay projects him to play 15 of 17 games), then 811 receiving yards is a more than attainable total for Coleman, but that number will likely rank third on the team behind at least one 1,000-yard receiver.