Bills Picking WR in First Round of NFL Draft? Not So Fast

It seems every Buffalo Bills 2024 NFL mock draft has the same few players being selected at No. 28 -- and all of them are receivers. Is that necessarily the most likely option?

Pick a mock draft, any mock draft. Scroll down to No. 28 and bam, the Buffalo Bills are taking a receiver with their first-round pick.

Maybe it’s Louisiana State’s Brian Thomas Jr. or Florida State’s Keon Coleman. Speedsters like Oregon’s Troy Franklin and South Carolina’s Xavier Legette make up a portion of the selections, too. Whatever website, analyst, or simulator one clicks on seems to constantly match Buffalo with a replacement for free-agent receiver Gabe Davis.

Are we sure that will be the case come April?

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Pairing quarterback Josh Allen with another weapon makes sense on multiple levels. Davis’ impending departure leaves a vertical-threat-shaped hole in the offense, and no one on the roster has positioned themselves as a plug-and-play replacement. Davis’ inconsistencies left much to be desired, too, meaning mock drafts with a receiver going to the Bills predated most of the hoopla that comes with free agency.

Further, giving Allen as much firepower as possible is admirable. Having an MVP-caliber quarterback demands a roster that reflects that, and building on strengths is how teams become dominant on either side of the ball. It’s a passing league, and the AFC is a gauntlet of quarterbacks attempting to take Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes off his throne. Adding a receiver of some sort could very well be necessary to finally advance past Kansas City in the playoffs.

Such an overwhelming consensus would make a receiver the betting favorite for No. 28. However, this phenomenon feels a bit too presumptuous given the offseason Buffalo is staring down.

The Bills may be able to retain some of its veteran defensive talents, but there’s no way of avoiding just how much Buffalo may need to reload – without much in the name of cap flexibility.

On Monday, the Bills voided the contracts of defensive tackles DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle, edge rusher Leonard Floyd – the team leader in sacks – and linebacker Tyler Matakevich. Veteran safety Micah Hyde followed suit, and his counterpart on the other side of the formation, Jordan Poyer, is nearing the twilight of his career.

Buffalo is also losing rotational edge rusher A.J. Epenesa, and will be relying on healthy and productive seasons from cornerback Tre’Davious White and edge rusher Von Miller.

That’s a lot to leave unaddressed in the first round. With several defensive backs and pass rushers slated as Day 1 talents, there’s as good of a shot as any that a high-level prospect on this side of the ball finds their way to Western New York.

Whether it’s Toledo corner Quinyon Mitchell, Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse, Minnesota safety Tyler Nubin, or another defender isn’t particularly important. It’s the notion that there are plenty of justifiable options for the Bills at No. 28 that don’t play receiver.

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Even more incentive to spend heavy draft capital on the defense would be the class itself. There are double-digit Top 100 prospects at receiver, and some would pose a number approaching 20. There are quality contributors littered throughout this class, possibly into the draft’s third day.

One more star weapon may be what the Bills need to get over the hump and said prospect could be available when they’re on the clock. But the internet-wide assumption that a receiver will be the pick is ambitious at best and a nasty case of groupthink at worst.