Bills' James Cook can eclipse insultingly low season projection with 2023 repeat

Set for his third pro season, Buffalo Bills' RB1 James Cook can beat his 2024 player prop season totals by repeating his 2023 success.

Ralph Ventre | Jul 17, 2024

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, NY; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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Buffalo Bills' running back James Cook emerged as a true RB1 in 2023, but the betting market suggests his production may drop slightly this upcoming fall.

Playing 55 percent of the offensive snaps over 17 regular season games, Cook totaled 1,567 yards from scrimmage to rank third amongst NFL running backs. He rushed 237 times for 1,122 yards and caught 44 of 55 receiving targets while averaging 10.1 yards per reception.

In terms of what's in store for 2024, BetOnline released projected season totals for running backs' stats on the wagering market, and the player prop totals hint that Cook could have a tough time reproducing his impressive numbers from 2023.

Here's a look at three of Cook's player prop season totals along with predictions for each.

Total Rushing Yards (Regular Season)

OVER/UNDER 950.5

Projection: OVER [Best Bet]

Cook seems destined for a second straight 1,000-yards rushing campaign, health permitting. He ran for 1,122 yards last year and that was despite complete duds against Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Then, there's the fact that the Bills showed the tendency to place a greater emphasis on the running game after Joe Brady's mid-season takeover as offensive coordinator. Cook's average climbed to 18.5 rush attempts per game over the final four weeks of the regular season.

Total Receiving Yards (Regular Season)

OVER/UNDER 400.5

Projection: UNDER

Cook will undoubtedly contribute his share of explosive plays through the passing game, but the focus will likely be on the third-year player becoming a bell cow ball carrier. The Bills may look to spread around the short-range and intermediate receiving targets with new addition Curtis Samuel potentially cutting into Cook's role as a receiver. It's unlikely Cook will see the 2.6 targets per game he got in 2023, resulting in him finishing just shy of the 400-yard receiving mark.

Total Rushing TDs (Regular Season)

OVER/UNDER 4.5

Projection: OVER

Remarkably, Cook recorded only two touchdown rushes in 237 carries last year as the Bills relied heavily on quarterback Josh Allen's legs in goal-to-go situations. Allen scored 15 rushing touchdowns, coming within one of the single-season franchise record set by Hall-of-Fame running back OJ Simpson. The law of averages suggests Cook will stumble into at least five TD rushes in 2024.

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