New movement atop Week 14 AFC analytical power rankings as Bills reign

One team climbed the rankings, while another fell out of the Top 5, despite both picking up Week 13 wins.

Ronnie Eastham | 8 Hours Ago

Bills Josh Allen leaps to the end zone in a nine-yard touchdown run after getting the ball passed back to him from Amari Cooper during second half action of their home game against the San Francisco 49ers in Orchard Park on Dec. 1, 2024. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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With another week down, the NFL season continues its push toward postseason play. It almost seems like a foregone conclusion, considering that the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are headed for another playoff clash.

The Chiefs, however, have been less than impressive with lackluster wins over the Panthers and Raiders by a combined total of five points. Two of the Ravens' losses this season have been against the Raiders and Browns, but they still fare very well in the analytical rankings. With how the regular season has played out thus far, the Bills seem to be on a path of destiny.

Interestingly, the Top 7 teams in our rankings also possess winning records, underscoring the analytics' ability to distinguish the stronger teams from the weaker ones. The variation lies in the specific rankings within the top seven. It's not just about the teams with the better record.

For some context on how these rankings were derived: it's important to understand that they're not a subjective ranking of teams. Nine metrics are used to calculate a singular value for each team. The metrics are:

Offensive DVOA

Defensive DVOA

Offensive EPA

Defensive EPA

Offensive Success Rate

Defensive Success Rate

Turnover Differential Average

Points Differential Average

Win/Loss Record

16. Las Vegas Raiders (2 - 10)

Nov 29, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (89) runs with the ball against Kansas City Chiefs safety Chamarri Conner (27) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Raiders have occupied the last spot in the AFC for several weeks now and seems likely this is where they will finish the season. Despite a near-upset win against the Chiefs, they still found a way to lose. Tight end Brock Bowers has been the lone bright spot, but the offense is terrible, ranking 32nd in EPA per play and 31st in DVOA.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2 - 10)

This has been a lost season for the Jaguars, a former playoff team and division champ who fell into the AFC cellar in 2024. Their plight can be explained by the lack of defense, where they rank 32nd in success rate and DVOA. Their offense hasn't fared much better, ranking 22nd in EPA, 23rd in success rate, and 18th in DVOA.

14. New England Patriots (3 - 10)

The Patriots nearly pulled out a win against the Colts but couldn't get it done in the end. Their highest ranking is 20th in defensive success rate, indicating a significant journey ahead to become competitive, not only in the conference but within their division. Their overall ranking makes sense, given they may be the least talented roster in the league and rank 31st in both offensive and defensive DVOA.

13. Cleveland Browns (3 - 9)

Jameis Winston is wild to watch, throwing for nearly 500 yards and four touchdowns, yet single-handedly giving the Broncos a win with two-pick sixes, and three total interceptions. The Browns had an impressive offensive performance against the Broncos' solid defense; however, they still rank poorly. Cleveland ranks 29th in offensive EPA, and 31st in success rate and DVOA. To be fair, the Browns have played this season primarily with Deshaun Watson as quarterback and without Nick Chubb.

12. Tennessee Titans (3 - 9)

The Titans' defensive analytics are right there with the best of the league; however, their offense is abysmal. They rank 31st in offensive EPA and 30th in DVOA. The defense continues to be a bright spot for them, ranking eighth in EPA, 10th in DVOA, and fourth in success rate. The Titans need a lot of work on the offensive side before they can compete in the conference.

10. Indianapolis Colts (6 - 7)

Dec 1, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (14) catches a touchdown pass / Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

The Colts eked out a win against the Patriots, and while they're still in the playoff hunt, their swift elimination seems probable if they make it. Ranked 32nd in offensive success rate, quarterback Anthony Richardson exhibits potential for future success; however, he seems unready to meet the challenge of making a run at a playoff spot.

11. Miami Dolphins (5 - 7)

The Dolphins won three straight against losing teams, but then a showdown in the cold against a team with a winning record ended with the same result as always, another loss. Still, at 5 - 7, their season isn't over, but they need to find a way to improve their 24th offensive EPA ranking and 26th DVOA rank.

9. New York Jets (3 - 9)

This season was expected to be a standout year for the Jets, but their performance has indicated that not only was the coaching staff a mismatch, but the quarterback was a poor fit as well. The Jets don't do anything exceptionally well, but they aren't bottom of the barrel either. They rank somewhere in the middle of most metrics, so their ranking at number nine overall makes sense.

8. Cincinnati Bengals (4 - 8)

It's no secret that the Bengals' ranking here is solely due to their explosive offense. Statistically, Joe Burrow is having a phenomenal season; however, the defense has been atrocious. On defense, the Bengals rank 26th in EPA, 27th in success rate, and 29th in DVOA. Their offense ranks eighth in EPA, 12th is success rate, and sixth in DVOA.

7. Los Angeles Chargers (8 - 4)

The Chargers will likely make the playoffs, but the question is, can they stay close enough to the Chiefs to make the division race an interesting one? They are three games behind, but the Chiefs haven't exactly been impressive. In the past weeks, the Chargers defensive ranks kept them in the top five, but they have been slipping lately, ranking 22nd in defensive EPA and success rate. They still rank a solid sixth in DVOA though.

6. Houston Texans (8 - 5)

The Texans are benefiting from a weak division, and have lost three of their last five, with those two wins coming against the Cowboys and Jaguars. The problem has been with the offense, where they rank 30th in offensive success rate and 23rd in DVOA. Their defense has been outstanding though, ranking fourth in EPA, first in success rate, and third in DVOA.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (9 - 3)

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Van Jefferson (11) catches a pass at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The national media will tell you that the Steelers offense has been rolling since Russell Wilson took over, but heading into Week 11 a few weeks ago, they ranked 13th and 17th in EPA and success rate. Heading into Week 14, they rank 17th and 27th. Their defense ranks in the top 12 of all three defensive categories and number two in turnover differential average.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (10 - 1)

The Chiefs continue to find ways to win, or in some cases, their opponents find ways to lose. Don't let their impressive record fool you, the Chiefs haven't been playing as well as the record would indicate, That said, they are still the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes. Their offense ranks sixth in EPA, first in success rate, and ninth in DVOA. Contrary to what people say, the defensive ranks aren't as good, ranking 17th in EPA and success rate and 15th in DVOA.

3. Denver Broncos (8 - 5)

The Broncos might be that team no one wants to face in the playoffs. Their defense has remained robust throughout the season, securing the third rank in both EPA and success rate, and achieving the fifth position in DVOA. But now the offense seems to be figuring things out as well. Three weeks ago, they ranked 24th in EPA, 23rd in success rate, and 24th in DVOA. Now, they rank 19th, 20th and 19th, respectively.

2. Baltimore Ravens (8 - 5)

Despite losses to the Raiders and Browns, the Ravens are performing well in most metrics, ranking number one in offensive EPA and DVOA, and number two in offensive success rate. Their defense has improved in some ways, ranking 26th in EPA a few weeks ago, and now rank 20th. They also ranked a 15th defensive success rate, and now rank 10th. Despite the improvements, they have lost two of their last three.

1. Buffalo Bills (10 - 2)

Bills quarterback Josh Allen runs into the end zone for a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers in Orchard Park on Dec. 1, 2024. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Bills have held the top spot for 12 consecutive weeks, basically since we began these rankings after Week Two. Buffalo has been dominant this season, winning five of their games by 21-plus points. Josh Allen is the favorite for league MVP and their offense just put up 35 points in a snowstorm. The Bills offense ranks second in EPA and DVOA, and 10th in success rate. They still hold the top spot in turnover differential average and second in point differential average.

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