Bills likely to face Broncos in AFC playoffs following Denver's loss to Chargers

The Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos have a 60% chance to matchup in the playoffs in just 3 weeks.

Taron John breaks up a pass in the Bills vs Broncos game from 2023 / AP Photo/Adrian Kraus

As the NFL season winds down, Buffalo Bills fans find themselves buzzing with excitement and anticipation for the playoffs. With the postseason picture becoming clearer, one of the intriguing matchups that fans are speculating about is a potential first-round showdown with the Denver Broncos. Given the current standings and performance trends, let’s break down the likelihood of this matchup.

Looking at the AFC standings, the Denver Broncos have made a notable resurgence this season. After a rocky start, the Broncos have pieced together a series of victories, putting them in a competitive position for a wild card spot -- even with a tough loss to division rival Los Angeles Thursday night that moved them to the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff standings. If the playoffs were to start today, the likelihood of a Bills-Broncos first-round match would depend heavily on the outcomes of the remaining games. The Bills, with their powerful offense led by Josh Allen, aim to secure home-field advantage, while the Broncos are fighting tooth and nail to secure their postseason ticket.

The combination of the Bills’ dynamic offense (2nd DVOA) and pesky defense (10th DVOA) makes them a daunting opponent. Moreover, playing at home in Orchard Park comes with its own set of advantages, including the raw energy of the fans and inevitably unpredictable weather conditions that can hinder opponents' performance.

However, it’s essential to evaluate the Broncos’ strengths as well. Under the leadership of their head coach, Sean Payton, Denver has demonstrated resilience, particularly their defense which has shown the ability to stifle even the most potent offenses. Also, their key players, including Patrick Surtain, have the talent to change the course of a game. Bills fans must remember that a playoff game is not like any other; it’s a different atmosphere where anything can happen. 

In terms of match strategy, the Bills would likely rely on their balanced attack, utilizing Keon Coleman to stretch the field. Meanwhile, the Broncos would presumably focus on containing the explosive plays while looking for opportunities to exploit any defensive lapses on the Bills’ side. Given both teams' capabilities, fans could expect a thrilling contest if they meet in the playoffs.

As the regular season comes to a close, it’s crucial for Bills fans to monitor not just their own team’s success but also the performance of the Broncos and other potential Wild Card contenders. Every game counts, and the implications stretch far beyond just seeding. The Bills now have about a 60% chance to play the Broncos in the first round of the playoffs.

While the possibility of a playoff matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos looms tantalizingly, much will depend on the final weeks of the season. For now, fans can only hope for a thrilling postseason run, ideally leading to a showdown that brings the excitement of playoff football back to Buffalo.