Advanced analytics reveal exactly how Broncos can beat Raiders on Monday night

Vince Lombardi once said, “Football is a game of inches.” His words were as true then as they are now.

Victory in the NFL is often decided by only a few plays. In fact, a single play can change the course of a game.

Quoting arguably the most famous historical figure in pro football is fitting as the Denver Broncos kick off the NFL’s 100th anniversary as the team renews one of the league’s best rivalries by traveling to Oakland to square off against the Raiders.

Quoting Lombardi isn’t just because I’m feeling nostalgic on this 100th anniversary. By being aware of small details that may seem minimal in the big picture of a sixty-minute football game, the Broncos can be victorious. Analytics show there are three details that will be a factor in Monday night’s game.

3rd-&-5 (or less): Running the ball out of shotgun

In this passing league, the run takes a back seat, but would it surprise you to know that when teams line up in the shotgun formation on third down with five or less yards to go, running the ball yields a higher conversion rate than passing?

Across the NFL, 65% of third downs are converted using the run from the shotgun formation when the distance is 5 yards or less. Why is this important for the Raiders game?

92% of third downs were converted against the Raiders in 2018 using this strategy.

That was the highest percentage of any team the Broncos face this season and it was a forty percent increase over the Raiders' typical rate against the run on third down. This strategy must be used sparingly because it usually comes as a surprise to the defense.

The Broncos can plan at least one delay or draw on third down and this one play can change the course of the game. This is also a reason that Phillip Lindsay needs to be on the field more on third down.

Raiders' rushing creativity wanes past first quarter

Next, the analytics show a trend in the Oakland running game. 29% of the Raiders' rushing attempts in the first quarter went over the center.

Jon Gruden and the Raiders use the first quarter to be creative in the run game, but by the second quarter that creativity wanes. In the second quarter, 38% of their rushing attempts went over the center and by the fourth quarter that moved to 42%.

Oakland got more conservative and ran up the middle often. The Broncos can key on this trend to stop their running game.

Target Oakland's deep/right side of secondary

Finally, the Oakland pass defense has a glaring weakness. They allow a 65% completion rate to the deep right.

In 2018, the Raiders were vulnerable to passes that traveled at least 20 air yards to the right of the field. Teams that played them completed 65% of their passes, nearly double the league-wide average.

The Raiders also tallied no interceptions and opponents gained 19 yards per attempt. Those are big gains, with low risk. Joe Flacco’s deep passing ability can translate one throw into a large tide-turning gain.

Bottom line

These seemingly insignificant keys can be exploited at the opportune moment by the Broncos to blow this game wide open.

Follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasHallNFL and @MileHighHuddle.

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