Broncos 10-Point Plan to Crush 2022 Free Agency

This is how George Paton can tackle the 2022 offseason with aplomb.

We're just more than a week away from the start of NFL free agency and Denver Broncos fans will be asking what GM George Paton intends to do this offseason to improve the team.

Of course, everyone has been talking about the quarterback situation and whether or not Paton will be able to trade for a veteran. Right now, it doesn't appear to be likely, so in going over my offseason plan, I have approached it as if the Broncos don't acquire a top veteran such as Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson.

My approach does not involve going after any other QB who might be on the trading block because none of them are worth pursuing, frankly. Either the QB's cap hit is too high and you don't want to extend him (Kirk Cousins), there are too many off-field questions (Deshaun Watson) or it's simply not worth trading for him (Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo).

That means I had to make do with what I could in free agency, but I also planned with an eye toward 2023. I avoided most of free agency (other than bringing or possibly bringing back current Broncos) in hopes that I can get a couple of compensatory picks, and am prepared to trade down in the 2022 draft to get more capital, with a focus on finding a QB in 2023.

So, without further ado, here's my offseason game plan, assuming the Broncos don't land Rodgers or Wilson in a trade. We start with a current estimate of $39.4 million in cap space with 51 players under contract, with the top-51 cutoff rule in effect for the cap.

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1. Tender ERFAs: QB Brett Rypien, ILB Jonas Griffith, & S PJ Locke

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I've gone over this several times before: tendering exclusive rights free agents is a no-brainer in most cases, because they are cheap players who get no guaranteed money. There is one other ERFA, RB Adrian Killins, but he's coming off a significant injury and won't likely be retained.

We are now down to $38.9M in cap space.

2. Tender RFA OLB Malik Reed

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While Reed didn't have a great season in 2021, tendering him at the second-round level ensures the Broncos have him at least as a rotational player. His tender is estimated at $3.98M. I thought about the right of first refusal level, but some teams could be tempted to look at him.

We are now down to $35.6M in cap space.

3. Tender RFAs OT Calvin Anderson & DL DeShawn Williams

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While there is a risk to players being signed to offer sheets the Broncos won't match, and with no compensation, with this righ-of-first-refusal tender level, I don't think there's going to be high demand for Anderson and Williams. Maybe that happens with Anderson, but teams would be pursuing a player with a small sample size of starts.

Note that I will not be tendering any other restricted free agents.

The tenders for both players takes us down to $32.1M in cap space.

4. Cut DL Mike Purcell

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With Williams tendered, there is no reason to keep Purcell. It's best to go ahead and cut him at this point, giving him an early chance to find another team. Though Purcell could be designated a post-June 1 cut to give the Broncos space for draft picks, I did this as a straight cut.

Cutting Purcell gets Denver to $34.9M in cap space with 57 players under contract.

5. Re-Sign LB Josey Jewell to 3-&ear, $18M Deal

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Jewell is the one free agent who is the best option to bring back before free agency gets underway. I'm treating him like the Broncos treated Todd Davis a few years back. The contract structure is a $6M signing bonus and a $1M base salary, both fully guaranteed, in 2022, with a $5M injury-only guaranteed salary in 2023 and a $6M base salary in 2024 that isn't guaranteed.

Jewell has a 2022 cap number of $3M and we are now down to $32.6M in cap space.

6. Let All Free Agents Hit Open Market

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There's nobody else I'm going to sign among Broncos players who are hitting unrestricted free agency. Let these players test the market, with the expectation that some are going to sign with other teams.

It's likely there will be interest from other teams in Kyle Fuller, Bryce Callahan, Alexander Johnson, Bobby Massie, and Melvin Gordon. However, I want to have younger players on the roster and will focus on the draft to get such players.

7. Sign QB Marcus Mariota to 2-&ear, $18M Deal with Incentives

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Among free-agent options, Mariota is the best one in terms of fitting the scheme that head coach Nathaniel Hackett will likely want to run. The hope is that Mariota can find success under Hackett and get the Broncos a winning record and make a playoff push.

The two-year deal gives Mariota a $5M signing bonus and a $1M base salary in 2022, both fully guaranteed. It will include $4M in incentives based on snaps played, team performance, and playoff performance. In other words, Mariota must prove to be a worthy starter to earn those incentives.

In 2023, he'll be due $12M, of which $8M is in a base salary and $4M is in a roster bonus due on the fifth day of the league year. This gives Mariota some protection because if the Broncos decide not to keep him, they must cut him early in free agency to avoid paying the roster bonus. But if Mariota plays well in 2022 and the Broncos want to keep him, he earns another $4M.

Also, we'll add the same $4M in incentives in 2023, meaning the contract has a maximum value of $26M over two years.

Mariota will have a 2022 cap number of $3.5M and our cap space is down to $29.8M.

8. Sign CB Darious Williams to 3-Year, $27M Deal

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We'll go ahead and bring in a cornerback who has played for new defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. The Rams won't be able to bring everybody back, so Williams should be available and not come in at too high of a price point.

Williams will receive a $9M signing bonus and a $1M base salary in 2022, then an $8M base salary in 2023, all fully guaranteed. The remaining $9M base salary in 2024 isn't guaranteed. Keep in mind that, in 2023, the Broncos can always cut Ronald Darby to accommodate Williams' cap and cash hit that year.

Williams has a 2022 cap hit of $4M and the Broncos now have $26.7M in cap space.

9. Examine Re-Signing Free Agents After Market Setltes

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At this point, I sit out free agency and let things develop elsewhere. Once the dust settles, I look at who is out there and bring back players to add to the depth.

CBs Nate Hairston and Mike Ford would be ideal to bring back on veteran minimum deals, as would TE Eric Saubert. I won't rule out RB Melvin Gordon, either, but if his price gets too high, the Broncos are better off drafting a running back to pair with Javonte Williams.

Let's assume all three come back on veteran minimum deals. Bringing them back on those deals brings the Broncos cap space down to $26M.

10. Keep P Sam Martin for Now

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Because Martin doesn't have any guaranteed salary or roster bonus due, there's no harm to keeping him on the roster. If the Broncos find a punter in the seventh round or after the draft, they can always cut Martin at that point.

Other Factors to Consider

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The Broncos absolutely need to trade down from No. 9 overall with the intent of getting another day two pick and a first-round pick in 2023 as part of the package. I'd keep an eye on the New Orleans Saints, who are known for being aggressive in moving up the board for players they like.

After a trade down, I'm looking at finding an edge rusher and an offensive tackle with my first two picks. With the additional Day 3 pick I acquire, I can roll the dice on a quarterback. Other positions I will likely look for on day two are cornerback, interior defender, and an offensive skill position, focusing on the best player available.

You'll notice the Broncos have a ton of cap space left, but that can be utilized toward extensions for certain players, depending on their performances in 2022. Dre'Mont Jones will be in line for an extension, and if OLB Bradley Chubb can bounce back and play at a high level, he could get an extension as well.

The Broncos do need to hit a certain floor in terms of cash spending, but that doesn't equal cap space utilized. Signing bonuses are used to reduce first-year cap hits, even though the cash is spent in the current year.

Furthermore, the intent here is to stockpile for 2023. Getting a 2023 first in a trade down from No. 9, plus possibly picking up a day three comp pick or two, gets the Broncos more draft capital next year. Add in cap space carried over, and the Broncos can be aggressive in both free agency and the draft — the latter with the intent of getting their QB to build around, should their roll of the dice on a 2022 QB prospect not pan out.

Bottom Line

While some Broncos fans won't be happy about not getting Rodgers or Wilson in a trade, the Broncos can still make the best of the situation they're given. What I provided is one example of how that might work.

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