10 Reasons Broncos Will Win 10 Games in 2020

Here's why the Broncos are poised to turn the ship around in 2020.

Last week, the NFL released the 2020 regular-season schedule. The Denver Broncos, after knowing which opponents they would face this season since January, finally got clarity on the order in which those matchups will unfold come the fall.

Some fans looked at the schedule and blanched, while others yawned. The National perspective continued it’s (mostly) negative view of the Broncos, with one analyst predicting the Broncos to finish 3-13 in 2020.

After going game-by-game through the schedule, my way-too-early prediction for Denver is 11-5. I’ll reassess in August after I get a look at how this team is actually shaping up in training camp and preseason but going from seven wins last year to 11? That’s a big leap, and I understand anyone’s skepticism on the issue.

But it’s more probable than improbable to me that the Broncos will win double-digit games. Let me explain why by unveiling 10 reasons why Denver can and will get to 10 wins in 2020. You’ll notice only one of these points has anything to do with the schedule.

1. Law of Averages

Been some dark days of depredation in the Mile High City. After going 5-11 in 2017 under ex-head coach Vance Joseph, followed by 6-10 in 2018, the Broncos lost double-digit games in back-to-back seasons for the first time in a half-century.

GM John Elway fired Joseph and hired Vic Fangio, a coach who brought significantly more NFL experience to the table than his predecessor. 

It took a little time, and while things were coming together, the Broncos lost three games in the first half of the season that they either should have won, or lost on the final possession, two of which involved egregious impingement by the officials (Week 2 vs. CHI and Week 4 vs. JAX) with unjustified penalties that set the opponent up for victory in the closing seconds. 

The Broncos would go on to lose one more game later in the season that they should have won after getting out to a 20-0 first-half lead over Minnesota. Added up, defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory four times by Denver last year. 

Along the way, the Broncos butted up against the dynamic laws of football karma big-time. If Fate’s gavel falls slightly differently in those three games (including Week 7 at IND) before the bye, the Broncos win 10 and make the playoffs instead of the Tennessee Titans.

That’s not how it shook out but in the wake of three-straight losing seasons, this team is about due for the clouds to part and a ray of sunshine to beam down on them, don’t you think? The Law of Averages would suggest the Broncos are poised to finally turn the ship around.

2. Bounced Off the Bottom, Indeed

There is empirical evidence to suggest that the turnaround has already begun. To use Elway’s verbiage, on the heels of winning five of their final eight games, the Broncos appear to have ‘bounced off the bottom’.

There are multiple reasons for that, which I’ll get to in the ensuing points. But the Broncos finally have momentum on their side and it’s palpable.

3. Upgraded Coaching

Fangio’s discerning eye didn’t like what he saw from Rich Scangarello in his one year at the helm of the offense and so he was fired in January. Fangio jettisoned Scangarello, in part, because of the sudden availability of Pat Shurmur, who’d just been relieved of his duties as head coach of the New York Giants.

Shurmur is a 21-year NFL coaching veteran and is widely considered one of the best offensive coordinators in the league. He might be a lousy head coach but he’s one heck of coordinator and QB developer.

An acolyte of Andy Reid, Shurmur was named Assistant Coach of the Year by the AP in 2017 after his Minnesota Vikings won 13 games and advanced to the NFC Championship Game. That accomplishment is what led to his second head-coaching gig in New York (first was several years prior in Cleveland).

Shurmur’s arrival bodes very well for Drew Lock as the OC has a unique touch with quarterbacks and fields an offense friendly to the position. Shurmur and the Broncos were lucky that he was able to bring his top assistant from New York with him in Mike Shula, who will serve as QBs Coach.

No disrespect to Scangarello and ex-QBs Coach T.C. McCartney, but the Broncos seriously upgraded their coaching wherewithal on the offensive side and it’s not even close. The experience and acumen Shurmur and Shula bring to the table will have a magnifying effect on the entire Broncos offense.

4. Munchak’s Teachings Soaking In

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

One assistant Fangio was keen to hold onto coming out of 2019 was O-line Coach Mike Munchak, roundly considered to be one of, if not the, best OL coaches in the NFL. In his first year coaching the Broncos’ O-line, the unit dealt with some serious injury issues and a lack of offensive tackle depth but Munchak’s savvy ultimately staved off disaster.

2019 second-rounder Dalton Risner played at a very high level before getting banged up down the stretch, but he valiantly hung in there and finished off the season. Part of the reason the Broncos were interested in Munchak as a head-coaching candidate in January of 2019 was Elway’s belief that he could salvage the career of Garett Bolles. 

While it didn’t appear early on that Munchak was able to get through to Bolles, by the time the Broncos got to the stretch run, it was clear that the 2017 first-round pick had turned a corner. When Lock was inserted as the starter in Week 13, Bolles would go on to relinquish just one sack on him. 

From the bye week on, Bolles played at a very high level and was able to significantly curtail the penalties. From Bolles to Risner and Ja’Wuan James — the three incumbents on the O-line who project as day-one starters in 2020 — they’ll have had a full year and two offseasons to fully assimilate Munchak’s coaching techniques and understand implicitly what their position coach expects from them.

That will have a galvanizing effect on the unit because the truth is, it can take time for a coach’s approach to really sink in. Once it does, that room can go from 0-to-60 in no time flat.

5. Fangio’s Experience Building

Although Fangio brought decades of NFL experience to the table, he was a first-year head coach in 2019. Being the head man put a lot of new responsibilities and obstacles on Fangio’s plate that he’d never had to deal with before. Some of a head coach’s brief can be anticipated but most of it can only be gleaned through the trial and error process.

Well, Fangio navigated those pitfalls to varying degrees of success as a first-year guy and what he learned should set him and the Broncos up for a more accelerated start out of the gates in 2020. Look for the Broncos to more closely resemble the detail-oriented head coach’s personality. 

I expect this team to show better poise in crunch time and discipline in critical situations and for the defense to climb into top gear much faster than last year.

What happens next for the Broncos? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second and sign up for our free newsletter and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

6. Bolstered Interior

Not only do I expect to see continued progress from the aforementioned Bolles and Risner on the left side of the line, but if the Football Gods allow James to avoid the injury bug this year, those three incumbents will represent a more-than-solid foundation. Adding to that equation and completing the starting five is the arrival of free-agent right guard Graham Glasgow and third-round center Lloyd Cushenberry.

There’s a lot of pressure on Bolles and James to keep the edges clean for Lock, but it’s the interior pressure that more seriously threatens the second-year QB’s ability to read the field and navigate the pocket. There will be some growing pains for Cushenberry but he’s a very talented center with a high football intellect so the learning curve will be positively mitigated.

With Risner on one side and Glasgow on the other, I like Cushenberry’s odds of hitting the ground running as a rookie center. That interior trio will be a veritable wall in protecting Lock, buying him time to diagnose the field and step up in the pocket when needed.

7. Fangio Gets His Guys

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Any time a head coach assumes a new job, part of his responsibility is making the most of the talent he inherits and figuring out a way to either fit his scheme and philosophies around the players, or vice versa. Along the way, it’s crucial for the coach and the front office to be unified in getting the right players, both in free agency and the draft, to fit the scheme and culture.

By all accounts, Fangio was much more involved in the Broncos’ offseason personnel decisions this year. Elway listened to Fangio’s counsel and helped the head coach get ‘his’ type of players.

Who are those players? We can safely assume that DL Jurrell Casey and CB A.J. Bouye, both acquired via trade, are Fangio guys. But it also includes getting FS Justin Simmons and CB De’Vante Bausby back in the building. CB Bryce Callahan's expected return (also a Fangio guy), will help complete the picture. 

In the draft, Fangio nabbed CB Michael Ojemudia, DL McTelvin Agim, and LB Justin Strnad, all of whom check the head coach’s prototypical boxes. A couple more offseasons and the roster will resemble Fangio’s ideals even more so but the Broncos got a lot closer to that vision in 2020.

8. Upward Mobility

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

In 2019, WR Courtland Sutton took an absolutely massive step forward in his development. It was his second year in the league and there’s good reason to believe he was only scratching the surface. That upward mobility will continue in 2020.

Also in line for a leap forward is the aforementioned Risner, as well as RB Phillip Lindsay (who I believe is yet to hit his NFL ceiling) and TE Noah Fant. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Fant have a similar second year as Sutton did, taking the NFL by storm from seemingly out of nowhere.

9. Six Games Against Playoff Opponents

The Broncos’ 2020 slate of games is ranked 12th in strength of schedule, which is close to middle-of-the-pack. In terms of difficulty, it’s a fair-to-middling schedule, even though the oddsmakers view it as perhaps being a bit stiffer than the strength-of-schedule formula would suggest.

Out of 16 games, the Broncos will face six contests against opponents who appeared in the playoffs last year. For those of you skeptical that the New England Patriots represent a real threat in 2020, even if true, that possibility is negated by the fact that Tom Brady now plays for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who didn’t make the playoffs last year, but will travel to Denver for a Week 3 matchup.

Two of those six games against playoff opponents are against the Division-rival Kansas City Chiefs. While Tennessee, New Orleans, and Buffalo will serve as great litmus tests, I like the Broncos’ odds of winning more games than they lose against the 10 non-playoff opponents in between.

Overall, it’s not a frightening schedule for Denver, though it does present its unique challenges and no NFL opponent should ever be overlooked.

10. Lock’s Quantum Leap

The destiny of this team in 2020 rises and falls with Drew Lock — let’s face it. So the question really becomes, how confident are you that Lock will capitalize on all of these additions at the coaching and player level?

From getting dynamic wide receivers in the draft like Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, to being teamed up once again with his Missouri corner-route partner Albert Okwuegbunam, Lock undoubtedly received some serious upgrades to his arsenal of weapons.

Combined with his natural progression as a smart and dedicated player, the arrival of Shurmur and Shula will only accelerate Lock’s development. Some in the national media view Lock as a darkhorse MVP candidate, and seeing how the last two NFL MVPs have been second-year QBs, it’s not hard to see the parallels in the case of the Broncos’ signal-caller.

At the end of the day, the Broncos made 2020 all about building the nest around Lock. The second-year gunslinger got upgrades in coaching, scheme, interior O-line, wide receiver, and tight end.

There’s a lot of pressure on his shoulders but my intuition is that Lock has what it takes to handle the expectations. He’s been doing it since high school and never before has he had the full faith and support of an organization.

Lock is the 10th and final domino to fall in my argument for the Broncos winning double-digit games in 2020. It’s official; Lock is loaded for bear on this hunt.

Am I up in the night? Do you agree or disagree with my takes? Sound off in the comment section below!

Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.