3 Keys to a Broncos Victory Over Falcons in Week 11

Here's how the Denver Broncos snap their two-game losing streak and beat the Atlanta Falcons.

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos running back Audric Estime (23) celebrates after a touchdown by wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) during the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos can’t wait to move on from last Sunday’s soul-crushing blocked field-goal attempt in Kansas City as time expired. Hoping to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, the 5-5 Broncos will look to reclaim their playoff pursuit by hosting the 6-4 Atlanta Falcons. 

The Falcons fly into Denver atop their division with a two-game lead despite losing 20-17 to the New Orleans Saints last week. Falcons head coach Raheem Morris and quarterback Kirk Cousins are both in their first season in Atlanta.

The Falcons are the fourth and final NFC South team the Broncos will face this season. Thus far, Denver is 3-0 against NFC South opponents.

Week 11’s tilt will also be the first time that Falcons safety Justin Simmons returns to Denver since being released by the Broncos after eight seasons and two Pro Bowl nods. The Broncos are slightly favored according to most sports books, but they’ve only won two home games with a .500 standing at Mile High this season. 

This is a must-win game for the Broncos, who must climb out of third place in the AFC West to seize a Wildcard playoff spot. But the Falcons are the third-best team in the NFC with firm playoff expectations, and they're in Denver’s way.

What'll it take for Denver to come out on top? Let’s examine my three keys to a Broncos victory over the Falcons and a clean sweep of Sean Payton’s former division. 

Take the Ball Away from Cousins

When the Falcons signed Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract last spring, a steep set of playoff expectations came with the deal. The 36-year-old veteran is on his third team, having spent six seasons in Washington and Minnesota with a 1-4 career postseason record.

So far, so good for Cousins, who’s playing at a top-10 level, delivering winning football. He's passed for 2,634 passing yards and 17 touchdowns, with a 68.2 completion percentage.

Falcons play-caller Zac Robinson, a Colorado native, is in his first season as offensive coordinator. He's credited for Atlanta’s offense ranking No. 5 in total yards and passing yards per game. A stellar start for Cousins and Robinson, no doubt. 

But the aging Cousins is hurt, popping up on the Falcons' practice report, officially listed as limited with full participation for injuries to his throwing shoulder and elbow. Combine that with Cousins' turnover-prone nature to the tune of eight interceptions in 10 games, and Vance Joseph's defense is poised to win the turnover battle on Sunday.

Cousins is also responsible for 10 fumbles and has only played in one game this season in which he hasn’t turned the football over. In last week’s 20-17 loss, the Saints notched three sacks, and he was hit nine times, signaling that the former Pro Bowler is vulnerable against pressure. 

While Broncos rush linebackers Jonathon Cooper, Nik Bonitto, and Jonah Elliss tee off on a Falcons offensive line that allows the ninth-highest amount of pressure this season, the defensive line should be able to feast. Because Cousins is hurt, turnover-prone, and immobile, defensive linemen Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers have the potential to win this game from the trenches — not to mention Patrick Surtain II, who’ll most likely have ample opportunity to secure an interception while covering Falcons wideout Drake London. 

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All Aboard the ‘Baby Bus’

The Broncos' running back room has been a complete mess heading into Week 11. After running back Audric Estime fumbled twice in five games, the talented rookie from Notre Dame proved himself to Payton in a productive performance last week, with 14 rushing attempts for 53 yards averaging 3.8 yards per carry. That adds to Estime's season total of 148 rushing yards on 29 attempts as the fifth-round pick is still searching for his first career touchdown.

Meanwhile, Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for a meager three carries for 13 yards at Arrowhead Stadium. The Broncos also experimented with wideout Marvin Mims Jr. in the backfield last week to draw production from an inconsistent running back position void of an undisputed starter.

Estime was nicknamed ‘Baby Bus,’ referring to fellow Notre Dame alum Jerome Bettis (formerly of the Pittsburgh Steelers), because of his 5-foot-11, 227-pound frame and 20.9 mph speed recorded in his college career. 

Payton’s offense desperately needs every ounce of the rookie’s strength and speed against a Falcons defense that allows 129 yards per game on the ground. Saints running back Alvin Kamara was able to earn 55 rushing yards on 17 attempts against Atlanta last week while also catching the ball five times for 54 yards. 

If the wheels on Estime’s bus go round and round, the Broncos offense could finally add a healthy and reliable run game to its arsenal. 

Let Nix Dink & Dunk

As much as Broncos fans want to see rookie quarterback Bo Nix operate an air-raid attack and connect with Courtland Sutton on deep shots, this isn’t the week for that. The reigning NFL Rookie of the Week posted an impressive 215-yard passing performance with two touchdowns and a 73.3 completion percentage in last week's 16-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Nix is the only starting QB to produce zero turnover-worthy plays against a 9-0 Kansas City squad that is eyeing a three-peat title. He also leads all NFL rookie QBs in total touchdowns (15) and completions (206), ranking second in passing yards (1,968).

Morris’ defense currently ranks dead last in sacks (nine) this season, signaling that Nix should have ample time to operate from within the pocket. Atlanta’s pass defense also allows 223 passing yards per game and is especially susceptible to both underneath and checkdown options. 

Saints quarterback Derek Carr was able to carve up the Falcons, connecting with seven separate receivers for 269 passing yards and two scores. Nix will likely see starting receiver Josh Reynolds back in action this Sunday, as the veteran has been listed as a full participant in practice this week.

Expect Payton to utilize his famed dink-and-dunk offense to potentially set up the type of big plays downfield that we all want to see Nix connect with his receivers on. Tight ends and running backs should be utilized in the passing game as the budding Broncos superstar quarterback is proving to make responsible and decisive decisions with the ball. 

As Peyton Manning once said, "You’ll never go broke taking a profit." There should be plenty of opportunities for the Broncos to earn some capital this Sunday against the Falcons.

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