3 Things Doubters Got Wrong About Broncos QB Bo Nix

It's time to clean the slate on the Bo Nix subject.

Nov 24, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws the ball in the fourth quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Leading up to the NFL draft, Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos were consistently linked in the rumor mill and prediction circuit. Nix's similarities to Drew Brees were easy to see, and what Sean Payton did with the former perennial Pro Bowler made it a natural pairing with the Oregon quarterback.

However, many draft analysts, including myself, were not sold on Nix as a first-round pick. While we are 12 games into his career, those of us who felt that way are well on the road to being proven wrong, so what did we miss? 

Age

One of the significant issues many of us had was his age, but we underestimated his maturity. What I mean by that is that at 24 years old, Nix is up there for quarterbacks, and historically, drafting older quarterbacks doesn’t bode well. They can be harder to develop as they are engrained in their techniques.

However, Nix's maturity was underestimated, aligning with his unselfishness. He wasn’t a finished product; even with 60 collegiate starts under his belt, he knew plenty of aspects needed to develop. 

While we are only 12 games into Nix's career, we have seen significant improvements to multiple areas of his technique, and some of them have come only in a matter of weeks. That doesn’t mean it is always clean and perfect, but showing the needed signs is the first step. His footwork and technique still need to improve when pressure is coming, as he still has a bad habit of sailing, which throws off his back foot. 

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Athleticism

Another factor was Nix's athleticism. Skipping the NFL Scouting Combine workouts impacted that misguided trope.

No one thought he was a lousy athlete, as you could see from his college tape, but draft analysts weren’t expecting him to be outstanding. He quickly proved he was an outstanding athlete and one of the better threats in the NFL with his legs. While he isn’t on the level of Lamar Jackon or Josh Allen, Nix is probably in that tier behind him. 

Arm Strength

The final significant element that draft analysts got hung up on was his arm strength, which has been hit or miss. There have been some deep shots this season where he didn’t put enough on it, but most of the issues with his deep shots have been something other than arm strength. It has been placement, timing, and receivers. 

Prior to the draft, I commented on using the deep game sparingly because of Nix's lack of arm strength. Well, he has had the second-most attempts of 20-plus air yards this season and 16th in air yards on those attempts at 28.9.

While Nix has completed only 18 -of-44, arm strength hasn’t been the issue for most of those incompletions. His 40.9 completion percentage ranks 11th in the NFL. 

Another way to look at arm strength isn’t only the distance of the throws but working tight-window throws. While I don’t have any stats to back this up, the same thing can be said about his tight-window throws as the deep shots based on the eye test.

While some misses are due to a lack of velocity on the ball, most are due to some other contributing factor. Then you have those out routes to the opposite boundary, which Nix has done an excellent job with, and many analysts will tell you these throws are the actual test of arm strength, combining distance and velocity. 

Overall, saying Nix has a good enough arm for the NFL is an understatement. That doesn’t mean he has one of the best arms in the NFL because that also isn’t the case. However, if you had to put it on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being a weak arm and 10 being an elite arm, Nix probably sits at a 7 instead of a 5. 

Bottom Line

There's a lot of football left this season, and hopefully for Nix’s career, and he keeps showing those who doubted him were wrong. There isn’t a science behind the NFL draft as to who will hit or miss, and it's like throwing darts at a dart board.

Draft analysts like myself threw the dart at the board and hit the wall, while Payton and company seemingly hit a bullseye. Let’s hope Nix keeps up this level of play, continues to improve each week, and truly cements himself as a franchise quarterback.

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