Analytics Show Broncos' Playoff Outlook Tied to Bo Nix, Offense

If the Denver Broncos wish to compete for the playoffs, Bo Nix and the offense have to start being more consistent.

Oct 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) during the fourth quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos sit at 3-2 after five week, winning at least a couple of games that some may not have expected them to win. While they still have their issues on offense, the Broncos have a top defense and special teams that have done a lot to help them win games.

The Broncos are not unique in terms of teams that have a top defense but an offense that has struggled. We can examine DVOA, the advanced metric developed by Aaron Schatz, to see that this is the case.

Let's start with the Broncos, who rank 18th overall in DVOA at 4 percent. They rank 25th overall in offense at -14.9 percent, fourth overall in defense at -12.8 percent (DVOA is better for defense when it's negative), and second overall in special teams at 6.1 percent.

The Broncos do have to credit the defense and special teams for taking a lot of pressure off the offense, which has often struggled in the first half of games but has done a better job in the second half, particularly after Bo Nix has settled down.

Obviously, more consistent play from Nix and the offense would help. But Schatz noted that the Broncos aren't the only team who has gotten a boost from defense when the offense has had issues.

Take the Minnesota Vikings, who rank No. 1 in overall DVOA at 38.1 percent. They can credit the defense for much of that ranking, which ranks No. 1 at -37.1 percent. At that pace, the Vikings could have a historically dominant defense. And when you have a defense like that, you can overcome an offense with its issues (the Vikings rank 19th on offense at -1.1 percent).

Then there's the Houston Texans, who are ranked seventh overall at 16 percent. Their offense is ranked 21st at -1.8 percent, largely because of a weak running game. However, their defense is ranked third at -15.2 percent. Their special teams is also good, ranked sixth at 2.6 percent.

And the Los Angeles Chargers are another team that has struggled on offense (ranked 24th at -13.7 percent) but is strong on defense (ranked second at -15.9 percent). Their special teams isn't good, though (ranked 24th at -1.8 percent), which puts the Chargers at 19th in overall DVOA at 0.3 percent.

The Broncos meet the Chargers this week and one might expect a game in which both offenses struggle while the defenses take over. Perhaps the game comes down to special teams? We'll find out this Sunday.

What happens next on the Broncos beat? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Other teams who are doing better on defense than offense are the Chicago Bears and Tennesse Titans, who are in the top 10 in defensive DVOA but are near the bottom in offensive DVOA.

The question to ask, of course, is whether or not the Broncos can get to the playoffs with this defense and special teams, even if the offense struggles.

If the Vikings stay on pace for an historically dominant defense, they should make the playoffs. The Texans should do the same, given that other teams in the AFC South have issues to fix.

The Broncos have a shot, but much depends on what happens in the next two weeks. Along with the Chargers, who have a top defense, the Broncos will face the New Orleans Saints, who are ranked fourth in overall DVOA. While it's true the Saints won't have Derek Carr, they're ranked eighth in defensive DVOA and fourth in special teams DVOA, so it's not a given the Broncos will win.

Also, the Broncos have to go through the Chiefs for the AFC West and the Baltimore Ravens for a Wild Card berth. Both teams are ranked in the top five in DVOA (Ravens second and Kansas City Chiefs third), with the Ravens boasting the top offensive DVOA at 31.4 percent and the Chiefs ranked fifth in offense, 10th in defense, and 14th in special teams, meaning each unit ranks in the top half of the league.

The Takeaway

If the Broncos want the best chance of reaching the playoffs, the offense needs to improve, particularly in the first half. But thanks to the defense and special teams, the Broncos are at least in a position to think about a possible playoff run.

Again, the next two weeks are likely to tell the tale about whether the Broncos can be a legitiamte playoff contender.

---

Follow Mile High Huddle on X and Facebook and subscribe on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!