Analytics Show Bo Nix, Broncos Offense Massive Improvement

The eye test and the scoreboard show the Denver Broncos improvement on offense, but the math backs it up as well.

Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos defense have made one of the biggest in-season leaps in the NFL. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are riding a three-game win streak going into their bye week. Though it hasn't been an easy path the past three weeks, they've done what good teams do, and that's find ways to overcome mistakes and win games.

And now the Broncos, who entered the 2024 season as a team many projected to win five or six games, are in the hunt for a playoff spot, something they haven't accomplished since 2015.

Early in the season, the Broncos defense proved to be better than many expected. In more recent weeks, though, the offense has come around. Per one advanced metric, the Broncos offense has improved greatly from the first six weeks of the season to the past seven weeks.

DVOA, the advanced metric by Aaron Schatz that measures how efficient teams are overall and in each phase of the game (offense, defense, special teams), shows that the Broncos are among five teams that have made the biggest improvement on offense from Weeks 1-6 to Weeks 7-13.

In Weeks 1-6, the Broncos had an offensive DVOA of -13.7%, or 26th in the league. For Weeks 7-13, the Broncos had an offensive DVOA of 3.3% , or 14th in the league for that span.

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Though not a large number, that the Broncos have positive DVOA on offense for the last seven weeks is a sign the offense is doing more to complement the other phases of the game. That has been important, as the other two phases of the game haven't always executed.

As for the season thus far, the Broncos are ninth in overall DVOA at 11.7%. They are 19th in offensive DVOA at -4.0% (keep in mind that's for all 13 weeks), fifth in defensive DVOA at -11.5% and fourth in special teams DVOA at 4.2%.

While the Broncos are still in the bottom half of the league in overall DVOA, keep in mind that's because it takes a lot to overcome the first six weeks in which the Broncos offense often struggled. Better play on offense after the bye could put the Broncos into the top half of the league overall.

The Broncos still have a long way to go to become a Super Bowl contender, though. The Lions still top the field in DVOA at 43.2%, while the Ravens are second at 35% (but thanks largely to the offense), the Bills are third at 26.1% and the Eagles are fourth at 25%.

Still, it's good to see the improvement on offense and the defense playing better this season than some may have thought. And no doubt fans are happy to see the Broncos in position to make the playoffs.

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