Are the 4-3 Broncos Playoff Bound?

The Denver Broncos are in a good position to challenge for the playoffs.

Oct 17, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks to pas downfield against the New Orleans Saints during the first half at Caesars Superdome. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

With the Denver Broncos now at 4-3 after a 33-10 win over the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night, a new question is on the minds of fans. How good are the Broncos' playoff chances?

Although the Broncos are mathematically in the hunt for a Wild Card berth at this point, it’s far from a given. The Broncos are a league-average team.

The Broncos certainly have one of the better defenses in the NFL and a top special teams unit. However, the offense is toward the bottom of the league.

Thus far, the Broncos have beaten a mediocre team in the Las Vegas Raiders, an injury-depleted team in the Saints, a league-average team in the New York Jets, and a likely playoff contender in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Broncos deserve credit for beating the Bucs, but Tampa's defense was missing a couple of key players. Also, the Broncos were fortunate to beat the Jets in a low-scoring game.

Meanwhile, the Broncos have lost to a legitimate playoff contender in the Pittsburgh Steelers and a likely playoff contender in the Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos have also lost to the Seattle Seahawks, who looked good to start the season but now look more like a league-average team.

While we have seen some good things from the offense, the slow start to the majority of games has been an issue. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix does have his issues but not everything is his fault.

Another issue is the Broncos lack legitimate playmakers on offense. However, it’s not a given that acquiring one playmaker will change everything.

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Remaining Schedule

Along with the offense needing to improve, there’s the question about the Broncos’ remaining schedule. There are some teams the Broncos will face who are either legitimate or likely playoff contenders. In a few cases, their units are doing a better job of complementing one another.

The Kansas City Chiefs are an obvious one. While they are not a juggernaut, they have offense, defense and special teams that all rank in the top 10. When you have consistency in all three phases of the game, you are rightfully not just a playoff contender but a Super Bowl contender.

Perhaps the Broncos can get a split against the Chiefs, though part of that may depend on where they are in Week 18, when the two teams will have their second meeting of the season. If the Chiefs’ playoff seeding is finalized at that point, they may rest their starters.

But it’s not just the Chiefs who the Broncos have to contend with. After the Carolina Panthers game, the Broncos face the Baltimore Ravens, who are another legitimate playoff contender. The Ravens got past an 0-2 start and are doing better in all three phases of the game.

The Atlanta Falcons have won three straight going into Week 7 and are solid on offense and defense. And while the Cincinnati Bengals are 2-4 going into Week 7, they have a good offense.

It’s the defense that has held back the Bengals, though. The Falcons are a likely playoff contender while the Bengals may be 2-4 but could do better in the coming weeks because they have a quality offense.

The Chiefs (who the Broncos will play twice), Ravens, Falcons, and Bengals represent five games in which it’s not a given that the Broncos will win. And while the Broncos have split with the Chargers in past seasons, it’s not a given the Broncos will win the rematch in Los Angeles in Week 16, particularly if the Chargers continue to play well on defense.

The Indianapolis Colts, like the Broncos, are a league-average team, though they’ve done better on offense than the Broncos. However, the Colts are nowhere near as good on defense.

Meanwhile, the Panthers and Browns are bad football teams while the Raiders are mediocre. The Broncos should be favored in those matchups, but one can’t take anything for granted.

Bottom Line

Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that the Broncos beat the Panthers, Browns, Raiders, and Colts in the coming weeks. That would give the Broncos eight wins for the season, so that wouldn't be enough to ensure a winning record.

To get to a winning record, the Broncos need to win at least one of their remaining games against the remaining teams on the schedule, and to have a realistic shot at the playoffs, win at least two but preferably three.

Some have argued that the Broncos need to trade for a player to push them over the top for a playoff spot. However, there’s no guarantee that such a trade will do that. Furthermore, a trade would likely bring a player who the Broncos have just for the rest of the season when they need more guys in place for the long term.

It may be better for the Broncos to forget about trading to acquire another player unless they do a player-for-player swap that might involve exchanging day three picks. But when it comes to trading players for picks, the teams who are better positioned to gain from that are those teams who have a realistic shot at the playoffs, not a team like the Broncos who are still putting pieces in place. (For those who bring up the Jets, jobs are on the line there, whereas that’s not the case with the Broncos this season.)

But while it’s still not a certainty that the Broncos will make the playoffs, keep this in mind: Most analysts pegged the Broncos as a five-win team. Between the Broncos defense and special teams, the wins they picked up on the early part of the schedule and the state of some of their future opponents, it’s clear the Broncos are better than a five-win team.

With that said, they are still league average and need to focus this season on getting better each week. In the 2025 offseason, that’s the time to figure out what they need out of free agency and the draft to upgrade the offense.

But Broncos fans can still enjoy the fact that the Broncos have proven they are a better team than what some predicted, even if the playoffs aren’t a given. The main thing they should hope for is the Broncos continuing to trend in the right direction and, in 2025, thinking about the next steps to make them a legitimate playoff contender.

Meanwhile, Broncos fans should enjoy the wins they’re getting, along with the reasons for optimism, and let the rest of the chips fall where they may.

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