It's Time to Answer if Broncos Are a 'Good' Team

Are the Denver Broncos one of the NFL's better teams? Or fool's gold?

Sep 22, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) leads a huddle against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos are hard to get a bead on this year. The Broncos have a 5-4 record, but is this a good team?

So, let’s dig into this and try to find the answer. 

Let's start with the five games the Broncos have won. It's worth noting that three of the teams they have beaten have made significant coaching changes. The New York Jets and New Orleans Saints fired their head coaches, and the Las Vegas Raiders fired multiple offensive coaches, including their offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and quarterback coach Rich Scangarello. Remember 'Scangs?' 

In addition, three of the Broncos' wins were against opponents with a combined record of 6-21, with all five of their wins coming from opponents with a combined record of 13-32. The Broncos have yet to beat a team that currently sits with a winning record.

When you look at the playoff picture, it isn’t ideal that three of the Broncos' five wins have come against NFC South opponents. It matters for the overall record, but it hurts when it comes to tiebreakers to figure out seeding.

Those wins were needed, as the overall record is the first thing to go by. But what isn't great is that the Broncos haven’t beaten more AFC opponents. In the end, defeating teams in the AFC is more important than beating NFC teams for Denver. 

Finally, the Broncos have blown out their opponents in these wins, scoring 131 points, 26.2 points per game, compared to allowing 58 points, or 11.6 points per game. They've feasted on bad teams, with the Broncos' best games coming against the three 2-7 teams they beat. 

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When you look at Denver's four losses, things get much worse. The combined record of the Broncos' opponents in these losses is 21-13, with only one team having a losing record: the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks have a point differential of -1.2 points, but they have won big or lost big instead of playing close games each week, with only three games within one score, including two overtime games. 

In these four losses, the Broncos allowed 103 points (25.8 per game) and scored 52 points (13 per game). So, when they face good opponents, they struggle on both sides of the ball.

Granted, this is skewed by the Baltimore Ravens' 41-point day. If you take out that game, it's still 62 points allowed to 42 points scored. All three of Denver's other losses were one-score games. 

In two of their losses, the Broncos' offense did practically nothing until the fourth quarter. Against the Seahawks, the defense scored four points off safeties, and the offense started decently, adding nine points in the first half for 13 total first-half points. The Broncos added a touchdown with over two minutes left to get within one score. 

If the Broncos keep this up, struggling against teams with winning records and doing well against teams with losing records, they would go 4-4 over the final eight games, finish the season with a 9-8 record, and probably miss the playoffs. Three of those four losses would come against the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, which would all but cement a failure to make the playoffs. 

That isn’t how I think things play out, though. Anything can happen on a given Sunday.

The Broncos upset the Chiefs last year when few thought they would, and they could do the same this year. The Broncos also play the Chiefs to close the season in a game where Kansas City could rest most of its starters.

There is a chance the Broncos can upset the Atlanta Falcons due to their defensive struggles when they come to Denver in two weeks.

Eight games are left, and a lot can happen, so we get back to the question: are the Broncos a good team? 

The answer is kind of. Yes, that's a cop-out of sorts, but it's the only answer. There was a time when the Broncos lost the games they were supposed to win, but they have been winning them this year.

That's what good teams do. However, good teams don’t have the inconsistencies the Broncos do, especially on offense, in the current age of the NFL.

Bottom Line

This is a young team with inexperienced core players at crucial positions, including quarterback. The Broncos' young quarterback, Bo Nix, is showing growth in certain areas each week while also showcasing that there's still much to work on in specific areas.

I would put the Broncos over/under for the final eight games at 4.5 wins. If they get the over, they're firmly in the playoff picture but could barely miss out.

But, if they hit the under, they are squarely out of the playoffs. Going 9-8 doesn’t seem like it will be enough this season, but it would be a winning record and the first for the Broncos since 2016. 

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