Looking for Blame in Broncos' Shocking Chiefs Loss? Aim at Sean Payton

Sean Payton must get out of the way for the Denver Broncos to have offensive consistency.

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton talks to line judge Jeff Bergman (32) during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos have a 5-5 record and are coming off a close, last-second loss to the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. But this team can be so much better.

What's holding Denver back is an offensive inconsistency, both in the passing and running game. It's easy to blame individual players and point out specific plays, but one person not getting enough of the blame is the head coach Sean Payton. 

Throughout the season, the Broncos have found things that work on offense. They have these brilliant moments that see the offense function at a high level, leading to long, sustained drives and points on the board. Due to the different types of defenses they face, the same things may only sometimes work against one team as it did the team the week before. That's a basic of football. 

Teams focus on different things to stop and excel in various areas. So, of course, Payton and the Broncos offense will switch things up based on their opponents. There is nothing wrong with that, as it comes with the territory of football.

However, Payton needs to improve on overcorrecting and not even trying to use things that worked previously. There are also multiple instances this season of the Broncos offense finding something that works, only to use it a few times while they stick with things that aren’t working. 

The head coach is to blame. Of course, player execution is also an issue, and play-calling isn’t this awful issue plaguing the Broncos and the lone issue, as some folks out there may make it seem. However, it is part of the equation. 

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An example of this is play-action. Bo Nix has thrown the second most passes off play-action but has the third-lowest yards per attempt and eighth-lowest completion percentage, while his EPA/Dropback raks 12th-lowest.

Payton keeps play-action as a large part of his offense, despite Nix and the offense performing better when they aren’t using it. The big difference here is how long the quarterback takes to make a throw on average. Nix's average to throw on play-action is 3.21 seconds, almost 0.3 seconds longer than without play-action. 

It was great to see some changes in what the Broncos were doing at the running back position. For weeks, injuries did impact the usage here, but deploying Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin on one first and second down after another was almost a waste of a down.

The duo's had some bright moments but Williams and McLaughlin's usage needs to be more varied and far between. Getting Audric Estime a higher touch rate, despite his fumbling concerns, worked out for the Broncos, despite what his 3.8 yards per carry may suggest.

It's worth noting that before running out the clock in the fourth quarter, when the Chiefs stacked the line, Estime had 11 carries for 49 yards (4.45 YPC avg).

That end-of-the-game sequence is also an issue with Payton, and it isn’t the first time in his one-and-a-half seasons as the head coach that he has messed up a sequence to close out a half or a game. To be clear, playing for a field goal wasn’t a terrible decision. It makes sense as you don’t want to risk a turnover, but it was the wrong decision. 

Until that point, the Broncos successfully moved the ball and ate up the clock. They had a 1st-&-10 with 1:46 left on the clock and the Chiefs with no timeouts left. Again, it makes sense to run the ball, drain out the clock, and play for a field goal. But that was the wrong choice, not only because of the result. 

Payton should’ve stayed aggressive. This is an aggressive team on both sides of the ball, and the Broncos are far better when they are. When the Broncos went passive, with multiple runs to run out the clock, the Chiefs knew what they were doing and stacked the line to shut down Estime, holding him to three carries for four yards. 

There are pros and cons both ways, but the Broncos changed their identity to close out the game, and they paid for it. Against the Baltimore Ravens, the Broncos changed their defensive identity and paid for it.

See the trend?

The Broncos are a naturally aggressive team, and they must be aggressive in all phases. There's plenty of blame to go around for this loss in Kansas City, but Payton isn’t excused from it. The Broncos live and die by the sword; they can't sheathe that blade in certain games or critical moments. 

The Takeaway

Payton has done an excellent job with the Broncos and changed the locker room culture. However, this offense needs to find a way to be consistent and stay aggressive.

For rhythm, the Broncos need Payton to get out of his own way. He has to stop cutting out things that are working entirely from the game plan without even trying it, and he can’t stick with things that aren’t working for too long.

Payton had figured out a balance for years with the New Orleans Saints, and he needs to find it again with this Broncos team. 

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