Metrics Refute Critics of Bo Nix & the Arm Strength Tropes

It's time to settle once and for all the claims about Bo Nix's arm.

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws a pass during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

For some reason, there seems to be an awful lot of Bo Nix haters who don't want to give him credit for the success he is having in his rookie season. Many of those haters claim to be watching film to form their opinion of his lack of quarterbacking success.

The problem is, what these critics claim to be seeing on film is contradicted by facts. The Denver Broncos rookie quarterback is performing well in his inaugural season, and it's time to lay bare the cold, hard facts that contradict those opinions.

Let’s get the most important part of this analysis out of the way. NFL stats such as air yards, completions, attempts, etc. — these are observable facts. The ball traveled in the air from the line of scrimmage for 10 yards. The measurement of that result is a fact.

Second, basic math can be applied to render calculations such as completion percentage and passer rating. Unless you believe that basic math isn't real, applying it to these facts will provide substance for comparison. For this analysis, the only calculation will be completion percentage, which is simple division.

Those who argue Nix is not a good enough quarterback typically say he can't throw the ball well, or at all, to certain areas of the field. They claim that deep balls don’t show off a quarterback’s arm strength and that short passes are easy in the NFL. Let's examine those claims.

Every Nix Throw | Chart

Below is every Nix throw charted by air yards and the result of that pass was compared side by side to every Patrick Mahomes pass through Week 12. Mahomes has been lauded as the best quarterback in the league and even the best in history by some.

Nix vs. Mahomes / Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

Air-Yard Range

Let's examine the air-yard range from 10 to 19 air yards. This is the area where quarterbacks can have the most difficulty, especially if they have a weak arm.

Nix has attempted 73 passes to this depth.  He doesn’t overly favor the left, middle, or right areas of the field, as he has a solid smattering across all areas. He has completed 50% in the 15 to 19 air-yard range and 49% in the 10 to 14 range. He has four touchdowns to one interception. 

Mahomes has also attempted 73 passes to those same ranges. He has a better completion percentage. 59% and 63%, which is a sizable difference to Nix.

However, Mahomes has thrown one touchdown pass and five interceptions. Completion percentage is fine, but most coaches would rather have the four touchdowns and one interception that Nix has over the one touchdown and five interceptions that Mahomes has thrown.

Furthermore, if you remove the first three games (Nix's first-ever trio of NFL games), Nix has a more comparable completion percentage to Mahomes in the 10 to 14 air-yard range at 67% to 73% and in the 15 to 19 air-yard range at 55% to 59%.  

Remember, Nix is a rookie, and Mahomes is a multiple Super Bowl-winning veteran for whom the media drool with every throw. For additional context, Josh Allen is in the MVP discussion, and his completion percentage to those same ranges isn't as good as Nix's. Allen completes 45% of his passes to both ranges. Nobody would argue that Allen has a weak arm.

Check-Down Trope

The argument that Nix is just a check-down quarterback is false, as he has thrown nine fewer passes that traveled fewer than 10 air yards than Mahomes. As a rookie, Nix is holding his own in the most difficult ranges to throw the ball in the NFL. He can fit the ball into the area of the field that many argue is difficult for quarterbacks, and he is doing it with solid success in his first season.

The opinions of the “film don’t lie” gurus aren't supported by facts. They tend to make the same two mistakes as 99% of the rest of the part-time film watchers.

One, they don’t know what they are seeing or have no context of which to make sense of what they are seeing. Two, they have a preconceived notion of a player, and their eyes are set to see than on film. 

Analysts can fudge data in the same way, which is why the image above is all factual data without hiding any passes, calculating a grade, making other highly involved calculations, or asserting opinions. It's there in plain sight for all to see and those willing to believe their eyes.

Nix is having a good rookie campaign, and there is reason for Broncos Country to be excited about the future of the team’s new quarterback.

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