5 Implications of Broncos Drafting QB Bo Nix in the First Round

The Denver Broncos didn't flinch at No. 12 overall in the NFL draft, but the Bo Nix selection comes with a few implications.

Nov 5, 2022; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) calls out during the / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

For better or worse, the Denver Broncos didn't overthink things when they were on the clock on Thursday night. With the 12th overall pick, the Broncos selected Oregon's Bo Nix, as the sixth quarterback taken in the NFL draft.

The draft brings a lot of emotion and expectations. With a few days to marinate on the Nix selection, here are five takeaways on the Broncos' first-round decision.

1. Nix was Widely Mocked to Denver for a Reason

Many analysts had Nix graded as a fringe first- to mid-second-round prospect. But in looking at the consensus mock picks, the vast majority of them had Nix mocked to the Broncos at No. 12. A significant number had the Broncos either moving back to get Nix or trading up into the back of the first round to secure him.

A trade-down would have been ideal, netting extra draft capital, but sometimes, the message it sends to the drafted prospect can outweigh the benefits, to say nothing of the risk of losing out on the player. A mock draft is one thing, but all it takes is one quarterback-hungry team on draft night and a signal-caller with starter ability, and the decision can become distilled.

After the Atlanta Falcons threw the first major curveball of the draft by taking Washington's Michael Penix with pick No. 8, the need to draft a quarterback with starting potential became more pressing for the Broncos at No. 12. With other quarterback-needy teams, especially the Las Vegas Raiders lurking at No. 13, the Broncos opted not to risk losing out on Nix. 

What is concerning, however, is how easily the Nix-to-Denver connection was made in the pre-draft process. The Broncos were seemingly open about who they liked in the pre-draft process with John Elway as GM, but this seemed to have improved under George Paton. In this situation, there was a lot more smoke with Nix and the Broncos, which can have the potential to back the team into a corner. The front office needs to be tightened up moving forward.  

2. A Good Choice for Payton's Scheme

Nix's fit with Payton's scheme is good. Nix can develop into a winning starter and open up more of the playbook with his ability to hit the short and the intermediate areas of the field with plus accuracy.

Nix is known for his football IQ and has a good work ethic. Stylistically, the football-hungry Nix and Payton will be interesting because they breathe football.

While the Drew Brees comparisons are overblown — in large part because he's a future Hall-of-Famer who had a great arm for the vast majority of his career — the Broncos can win in similar ways with a good running game and defense around him. Nix can operate as a game manager and distributor.

It goes without saying that the Broncos have drafted the first Nix rather than the second Brees. Nix can offer a threat with his legs that defenses will have to account for, but he will win in the pocket. 

What happens next for the Broncos? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

3. This Needs to be Nix's Team

Of course, a quarterback has to earn the starting job. But, if in the offseason program, Nix plays at a level that is close to Jarett Stidham, the presumed penciled-in starter for now, then the starting role needs to be turned over to the rookie so he can take his lumps as a starter.

The clock on Nix's contract starts now, and if the Broncos are to get the maxmimum flexibility from it, they need to find out what they have in him sooner rather than later. He was a prolific college starter, but how he is able to adjust to throwing into NFL-quality windows can realistically only happen in practice and in NFL games.

And in the event that Nix doesn't show signficant progress, the Broncos will need to find out sooner rather than later anyway. 

4. No Additional Capital Given Up

Sometimes a trade-up a team didn't make can be its biggest win. Imagine the cost it would have taken to move into the top 10 of the draft, to leapfrog the Falcons to get first choice at QB4, which was widely presumed to be Michigan's JJ McCarthy, although Penix was the apple of Atlanta's eye.

Sitting at No. 12, it would have cost, at least, a future second-round pick, maybe even a first, and possibly Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos have suffered with a lack of top 100 capital for many years, and heading into the 2025 draft, it'll be nice to have the means to continue building the nest for Nix by utilizing the full allocation of premium draft picks.

Parting ways with Russell Wilson, the Broncos had to make numerous moves with their cap situation, adjusting to his punitive dead-cap hit. However, in Nix, the Broncos have a quarterback who could be a starter, signed through 2027 on a cheap rookie deal, with a fifth-year option for 2028.

In the short-to-medium term, contracts can be structured around his cap hit, which is key as important pieces such as Surtain, Garett Bolles, and Courtland Sutton come up for extensions. 

5. If Nix Bombs, Broncos Can't be Gun-Shy

Where a QB prospect lands in the NFL, and the situation that team finds itself in, matters greatly. A QB's intangible traits matter as much as their tangible tools.

Quarterbacks bust. Every position in the draft busts. Although the Broncos' overall roster is talent-depleted, the pairing of Payton and Nix puts the rookie in the best situation. Bolles and Mike McGlinchey are a good set of bookends, while the Broncos have some pieces at key positions on offense and defense. Getting talent and continuing to add to the nest on both sides of the ball will be important. 

However, the Broncos must not get gun-shy if it doesn't work out with Nix. For various reasons, the Broncos have not selected a QB in the first round since the ill-fated Paxton Lynch selection in 2016, and it forced the team's hand into finding an alternative starter in order to compete.

However, teams have increasingly shown more of a willingness to move on if a quarterback isn't working out. The Arizona Cardinals moved on from Josh Rosen after one year, despite him being a top-10 pick.

The Pittsburgh Steelers moved on from Kenny Pickett after two years and 24 starts. Moving on from a QB is not the death knell it used to be, with talented passers better suited to playing early entering the league. QBs are being exposed to more advanced levels of passing even before high school.

Bottom Line

It remains to be seen how the Broncos can continue to build the nest around Nix, but the team did get better with the selection. How this pans out remains to be seen, but for better or worse, this is Nix's time and it's his team.

Follow Mile High Huddle on X and Facebook and subscribe on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!