Oddsmakers Don't Favor Jarrett Stidham in Broncos' QB1 Competition

The crystal ball reveals that Jarrett Stidham is favored to be the odd man out in the Denver Broncos quarterback battle.

May 23, 2024; Englewood, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham (8) and quarterback Bo Nix (10) during organized team activities at Centura Health Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this month, an insider report claimed that "almost all media observers" thought Jarrett Stidham had the best offseason of all the Denver Broncos quarterbacks. When it comes to predicting the future, the oddsmakers around the NFL were unphased by this report.

To no one's surprise, including those media observers in all likelihood, Bo Nix remains the favorite to be named starting quarterback of the Broncos to open the 2024 season.

Pro Football Talk's Michael David Smith broke it down on Saturday.

In the three-way quarterback competition in Denver, Nix is a -400 favorite at DraftKings.com. New arrival Zach Wilson is a +450 underdog, while Jarrett Stidham, who started the final two games of last season for the Broncos, is the long shot at +650.

- Michael David Smith

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So, the oddsmakers actually have Stidham poised as the "long shot." Interesting. And it adds up to some extent, even if the arithmetic doesn't reflect each quarterback's purported offseason performance.

Wilson has 33 career starts and is set to earn just over $1 million this season. The Broncos may have declined the fifth-year option on his contract, but Sean Payton claimed that the Broncos thought, "We'd love to work with this guy," before Wilson was acquired via trade.

Payton low-key coveted Wilson pre-draft. For what reason? It's hard to say, but Payton wanted the former No. 2 overall pick in Denver and has worked to repair Wilson's confidence out of the gates.

Meanwhile, after releasing Russell Wilson and triggering an $85 million dead-money charge the team will absorb over the next two years, the Broncos are very salary-cap-strapped. Denver sits with $7.6M in cap space right now, according to Over The Cap.

If the Broncos wanted to budget a little "Evan Mathis" money — a reserve earmarked for making a late roster addition or two after seeing how the chips fall in training camp — $7.6M would be cutting it close. That means that financial concerns, which always play a part in NFL personnel decisions, are likely to factor more heavily into Denver's 2024 approach.

Stidham comes with a $7M cap hit in 2024. If the Broncos were to release him before the season starts, they'd eat $1M in dead money, while saving $6M on the salary cap.

That means that Stidham can't just be a little better than Wilson this summer. He has to be a lot better — like, five million dollars better than Wilson — in order for it to make sense to keep him around as Nix's veteran backup and the team's quarterback fail-safe.

Stidham has just four career starts. Wilson dwarfs him in the real-game experience, even if Stidham has been in the league longer.

This is all background semantics, though. Because, as the oddsmakers are saying, it's Nix's job. And he's not going to lose it. That's not the type of guy he is. Plus, Payton isn't trying to throw away another season.

The question isn't which quarterback wins the starting job. That's a matter of course, it's fait accompli — it's Nix. It comes down to which veteran Payton ultimately chooses to keep around to back up his first-round, handpicked rookie starter.

Time will tell. But that's the real competition about to take shape when the Broncos hit the grass for training camp on July 23.

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