Mile High Huddle

New ORoY Odds Set Up an Intriguing December for Broncos QB Bo Nix

Bo Nix continues to close the distance between Jayden Daniels for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

Nick Kendell

Nov 24, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) gestures in the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.
Nov 24, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) gestures in the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
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The Denver Broncos season keeps chugging along, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix keeps playing better and better. He didn't have gaudy stats versus the Las Vegas Raiders, per se, completing 25-of-42 passing attempts (59.5%) for 273 yards and two touchdowns, with zero interceptions.

But Nix did enough to help the Broncos move the football, convert on some key third downs, and lead two touchdown drives while also setting up kicker Wil Lutz to knock in five field goal attempts on five attempts.

While no one should confuse the Raiders for having a suffocating defense, they certainly made the game difficult on Nix and the Broncos offense on Sunday. The Raiders limited Denver's rushing attack to a total of 63 yards and just 2.9 yards per attempt.

The Broncos failed to run the ball effectively at all and help out their rookie quarterback. The Broncos miraculously went 6-of-15 on third down in this game but the story was not the substandard conversion rate on third down, but the struggles on early downs. Averaging ~9.1 yards to go on third down, the Broncos placed Nix in less-than-desirable situations, and the rookie delivered.

Nix started off the season slow but earned October Rookie of the Month, and he's poised for another monthly accolade. In juxtaposition to Nix’s slow start was the play of fellow rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.

Daniels and the Washington Commanders’ offense blasted off to a historic start to the season. Up until Daniels suffered a rib injury in Week 7, he was one of the best statistical quarterbacks in the NFL, earning a league-best 0.324 EPA/Play, the fifth-highest success rate at 51.4%, and a league-leading completion percentage over expectation at 8.3. However, since suffering the rib injury, Daniels’ play has drastically regressed while Nix continues to improve.

The flip in each player's season lines up with the betting markets for the now-heated Offensive Rookie of the Year race. What once was a no-contest decision for Daniels, Nix has continued to play better and chip away at that lead in the odds.

According to DraftKings, Daniels was the heavy favorite to win the ORoY award just two weeks ago at -3000 odds to Nix’s +1400. After Week 12, Daniels now sits at just -135, with Nix at +110. Daniels is still a slight favorite, but the odds depict what is essentially a coin flip.

This isn’t just Daniels’ regressing but Nix playing drastically better. Since Week 8, Nix has played at or above a top-10 level while protecting the ball and maximizing the weapons at his disposal.

No, Nix isn’t getting it done completely alone, as Sean Payton's scheme and design, the protection of the offensive line, and the re-emergence of Courtland Sutton as a No. 1 receiver have certainly helped. This is football, though, and no player can get it done alone.

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Can Nix continue to play well and surpass Daniels as the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year? Daniels has a fairly easy slate of defensive opponents in the last five games of his season, but outside of the Thursday night game at the Los Angeles Chargers, Nix doesn’t have a gauntlet of top defenses left either.

Further helping Nix is the fact that the Broncos are in sole possession of a playoff berth and have two primetime games where the whole world can tune in to watch the rookie quarterback, as they host the Cleveland Browns on Monday night next week, as well as the aforementioned Week 16 game against the Chargers.

Will Nix win Rookie of the Year? Given the early-season start of Daniels with the Heisman-winning hype and his No. 2 overall draft pedigree, the narrative is working against Nix. If the Broncos' rookie keeps playing better, though, anything can happen.

Regardless of whether Nix wins the award or not, everyone in Broncos Country can consider themselves a winner with his rookie season. He landed in a spot with a mastermind offensive head coach and a strong offensive line.

Payton drafted the only first-round quarterback of his head-coaching career, and Nix appears to be a perfect fit. Nix could be the only starting quarterback Payton will have or need for the remainder of his NFL coaching career.

Broncos Country landed a quarterback the fanbase can rally around and truly believe in to give the team a chance in the quarterback-star-studded AFC.

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Nick Kendell
NICK KENDELL

Nick Kendell is a Senior Analyst at Mile High Huddle and has covered the Denver Broncos, NFL, and NFL Draft since 2017. He has covered the NFL Scouting Combine on-site, along with college pro days. Nick co-hosts the popular podcast Broncos For Breakfast and Building the Broncos. 

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