QB Bo Nix Will be Broncos' 'Day-One' Starter? PFF Lays Out Exactly Why

Bo Nix is about to join the Denver Broncos roster and the guys in the quarterback room won't know what hit them.

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix throws out a pass as the No. 6 Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans Saturday, / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA

Despite its mostly negative reviews of the Denver Broncos' 2024 draft haul and a wellspring of bad grades, Pro Football Focus sees Bo Nix as an excellent fit. After taking the time to analyze why a smart, savvy offensive mind like Sean Payton not only drafted Nix at No. 12 overall, but why he never blinked, PFF's John Kosko expects the former Heisman Trophy finalist to debut as Denver's QB1.

"Nix should be the day-one starter for the Broncos in 2024. While drafting a quarterback early is often a tell-tale sign of that, sometimes the roster doesn’t need it (looking at you, Atlanta). Nix, on the other hand, walks into a quarterback room with very little competition for the starting job," Kosko wrote.

That's for sure. Nix should make short work out of Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. Ben DiNucci isn't long for the roster, especially if Colorado School of Mines invitee John Matocha exceeds expectations at Broncos rookie minicamp.

After eight years of wandering the quarterback desert and hanging their hat in the NFL doldrums, the Broncos can't afford to wait on Nix, anyway. The good news is, he's not only 24 years old, but he enters the NFL as literally the most experienced college football quarterback of all time. Nix's 61 career starts are an NCAA record.

That doesn't mean that Nix won't have his ups and downs. Like any rookie, he'll have to navigate a trial-and-error learning curve, but with Payton at his side, the expectation is that Nix will microwave that process and provide the Broncos with a high-floor quarterbacking in Year 1.

"Nix will endure his struggles as any rookie does, but if Denver can protect him, he has quality receiving options to distribute the ball to and can develop into a reliable NFL starting quarterback," Kosko wrote.

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We also learned in Kosko's piece that when it comes to execution when under pressure, Nix stood head and shoulders above the 10 other quarterbacks drafted last month, including the vaunted likes of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye. Nix easily stomped all over J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. in the production-under-fire department.

"Of the 11 drafted quarterbacks in 2024, Nix stands well above the pack with an 86.2 pressured passing grade over the past two seasons," Kosko wrote.

Nix's poise was one of many attributes that attracted Payton and the Broncos. It all added up to a quarterback who fit like a glove into Payton's philosophy: a scheme based on the quick game, including short passes, a commitment to running the ball, and deep shots when the time is right.

Combined with his quick processing ability, accuracy, production under pressure, and deeply engrained aversion to negative plays, Nix has a lot to offer Payton and the Broncos offense. Kosko sums up exactly why Nix was an ideal fit for Payton.

"A Sean Payton offense is all about the quick game, a dedication to the run game and taking shots deep downfield. The quick game is heavy on stick and spacing concepts, two plays Oregon ran frequently and from which Nix excelled. Nix already does a good job with his pre-snap reads and avoids negative plays, traits Payton covets at the position.

"The shot plays Payton likes to call can be executed by Nix at a high level. His 95.5 passing grade on throws of 20-plus yards downfield ranked third in the class, and his 28.3% big-time throw rate on such plays placed fourth. Payton doesn’t marry this with play action very often, producing the third-lowest rate in the NFL with Drew Brees and just a 22.8% clip in 2023," Kosko wrote.

It wasn't all sunshine and rainbows from Kosko. The PFF analyst also correctly points out the areas Nix will have to clean up and improve on to reach his full potential under Payton.

"Drew Brees, arguably the most accurate quarterback in NFL history, accomplished that with incredible anticipation and footwork. Nix will still need to improve in those areas at the NFL level, as he tends to fade away from throws when he doesn’t need to and occasionally gets sloppy with his footwork," Kosko wrote.

It's an illuminating read, all of PFF's Nix shade notwithstanding. I'd recommend it to Mile High Huddle's readers. The link is above.

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