Predicting Broncos QB Bo Nix's Rookie Stats Based on Historical Analytics

How does recent NFL history predict what Bo Nix will produce as a rookie starter?

Aug 11, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) is pushed out of bounds by Indianapolis Colts safety Nick Cross (20) during the second quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium. / Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Denver Broncos fans finally have a quarterback to be excited about. After a multitude of failed options at the position since the legendary Peyton Manning hung up his cleats, Bo Nix, a promising young rookie, is ready to take the helm.

Nix gets the nod in 2024 and will be the first drafted rookie quarterback to start Week One in Denver Broncos history. Nobody knows what his future holds or how good he will be, but analytics will project his stats in his first season.

Nix wasn’t handed the job like many first-round rookies. He had to earn it by playing better than Jarrett Stidham, a veteran player whom head coach Sean Payton was enamored with in 2023.

Stidham isn’t a great quarterback by any stretch of the imagination but he has started in the NFL and has experience in the Payton offense. Nix winning the job is meaningful.

Nix fits Payton’s system with his quick reads, accuracy, and ability to get the ball out of his hand quickly. The rookie also played very well in the preseason with a 76.7% completion rate, 205 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a passer rating of 116.7.  

Before we anoint Nix as the next Hall-of-Fame quarterback to suit up in the Orange and Blue, we must consider that preseason stats don’t always translate to the regular season, and he is, after all, a rookie.

Over the past 10 seasons, there have been many rookie quarterbacks who have started at least eight games in the NFL. It has been a mixed bag of No. 1 overall sections to late-round guys who weren’t supposed to step in during their inaugural season. These rookies have played really well, very poorly, and everywhere in between.

Statistically, the best season was Justin Herbert in 2020 and the worst was DeShone Kizer in 2017. Even though there have been some great statistical seasons, there have been only two rookie quarterbacks in the past 10 years who have had great campaigns compared to all quarterbacks.

Herbert’s rookie campaign was ranked in the 80th percentile of all quarterback seasons adjusted for era and C.J. Stroud's rookie campaign was just outside the 80th. Really good seasons.

No matter how much promise Nix has, replicating what Herbert and Stroud did will be difficult. He will not be setting new season records for quarterbacks.

In fact, it's more likely that Nix will have a mediocre season than a great one compared to his veteran peers. I've examined the analytics and rookie quarterback stats over the past decade.

Below are the max, mean, and minimum of each of the major statistical categories for rookies in the last ten seasons:

Comp %

• 68.3%
• 61.4%
• 52.8%

Yards Per Game

• 289
• 216
• 156

TDs Per Game

• 2.07
• 1.17
• 0.54

Interceptions Per Game

• 0.25
• 0.78
• 1.47

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With how Nix performed in the preseason and the fact that he beat out an incumbent, it's safe to say he's unlikely to produce the worst stats. It's also likely he will perform above the average of the last 10 seasons.

Using those two key factors and projecting Nix's stats over 17 games, his season will conclude with the following stats:

• 3,907 yards
• 63.7% completion percentage
• 23 touchdowns
• 14 interceptions
• 94.5 passer rating
• 280 rushing yards
• 2 rushing touchdowns

Bottom Line

These statistics will not wow anyone in 2024, but they'd represent a solid performance for a rookie quarterback. They would also lead people to believe that Nix is the team’s future and will only get better in his following season.

That would be a welcomed change for Broncos Country after the revolving door of train wrecks at the quarterback position.

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