It's Time for NFL Oddsmakers to List Broncos QB Bo Nix as OROY Frontrunner

Bo Nix has eclipsed Jayden Daniels as the NFL's top rookie this season, and it's time the odds reflect it.

Nov 17, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) during the first quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos stuck to their plan and selected their guy with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft: Bo Nix. Draft pundits around the country, including myself, questioned this move.

However, the Broncos sit 6-5 and are in an excellent position to make the playoffs as the No. 7 seed with six games left, and Nix is quickly not only proving he was the right move but that he should be the favorite for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Six rookie quarterbacks have taken a snap this year. New Orleans' Spencer Rattler and Atlanta's Michel Penix Jr. have the fewest snaps, and are not in the conversation due to their limited time.

Chicago's Caleb Williams has struggled this season, some of which has been within his control and some outside. While New England's Drake Maye has done alright, it hasn’t been in the realm of Nix and Washington's Jayden Daniels, the two favorites to win it. 

Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers, New York Giants wideout Malik Nabers, and Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Brian Thomas Jr. are also in the conversation. However, with how the NFL is about these awards, it would be unlikely that a non-quarterback rookie will win it, barring a complete collapse from Nix and Daniels.

That leaves Daniels and Nix as the frontrunners. However, Nix has clearly separated from Daniels. 

And yet, the betting markets still have Daniels listed as a heavy favorite coming out of Week 11. Nix firmly leapfrogged Maye by virtue of his 300-yard, four-touchdown performance. And yet, here are DraftKings' updated odds:

• Jayden Daniels: -400
• Bo Nix: +300
• Drake Maye: +2500
• Brock Bowers: +3000
• Caleb Williams: +4000
• Malik Nabers: +5000
• Brian Thomas Jr.: +5000
• Marvin Harrison Jr.: +7500

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Daniels started the season off hot and took an early lead for the award, which was helped by Nix struggling. However, Daniels had a play-caller who made his offense easier for the rookie, while Nix had to deal with Sean Payton.

Payton is notorious for having players rise to his expectations and standards and didn’t ease up on Nix with his play-calls. Instead, he pushed Nix to step up and run his NFL offense, which the rookie has done after a rough start to the season. 

Daniels has also suffered a rib injury, which has significantly affected his play and effectiveness. Injuries are a part of the game, and his rib injury has derailed his runaway train for the award.

While Daniels was dealing with the rib injury, Nix was improving and acclimating to the NFL. Even when facing more formidable challenges, Nix still did well, even if the Broncos weren't able to win some tough games.

But how do Nix and Daniels stack up statistically?

Daniels has 63 more passing yards than Nix and three fewer interceptions, while Nix has four more passing touchdowns. On top of that, Daniels is completing 3.2% more of his passes and averages 1.6 yards more per attempt, but Nix has 19 total touchdowns to the former Heisman Trophy winner's 14.

Remember, Nix has that uber-rare receiving touchdown, but in most advanced statistical categories, Daniels is leading, and the Washington Commanders sit with a 7-4 record compared to the Broncos at 6-5 under their rookie quarterback. However, part of this goes into how things are trending.

Nix has been playing good football over the past few weeks, while Daniels has struggled to overcome that rib injury. With Nix trending up and Daniels down, it wouldn’t be surprising if the betting markets react accordingly.

Bottom Line

Of course, it's too early to call a winner with seven weeks of the NFL season left. There's a chance, and knock on wood here, that something happens to derail Nix’s attempt to win the award, but right now, he should be the favorite. 

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