Examining the Future Implications of Bo Nix's Broncos Contract

Bo Nix has signed on the dotted line, but what does it mean for the Denver Broncos' future outlook?

Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix. / Ben Swanson/Denver Broncos

With the Denver Broncos having signed Bo Nix to his first-round draft pick contract, fans won't have to worry about drawn-out negotiations continuing over the summer. Without getting into what sometimes causes that, under GM George Paton, the Broncos have been generally good about getting picks signed not too long after the draft without haggling over details like some teams.

But Nix, being on a draft pick contract, will give the Broncos the benefit of a QB on a low-cost contract, which is particularly useful if he proves himself as the starter. Let's examine the details of the deal and what it could mean for the future.

Nix's Money

For 2024, Nix is due $11.2 million in cash, but about $10.4 million of that comes in the form of a signing bonus. That amount, for cap purposes, means he will count for $3.4M against the cap.

In 2025, Nix is due a $681K roster bonus and a $960K base salary. While the cap charge will be $4.2M, it's still a small number for a QB, plus the Broncos' cash commitment to him will be low.

In 2026, Nix will be due a $1.4M roster bonus and a $1.075M base salary with a cap charge of $5.1M. Again, that's a small cap number for a QB and the cash commitment is low. Then comes 2027, in which he's due a $2.1M roster bonus and a $1.2M base salary with a cap charge of about $6M.

It remains to be seen what the fifth-year option will be for 2028, but by the time 2027 arrives, if Nix has proven himself to be a worthy starting QB, the Broncos may be talking about an extension. For now, the Broncos don't have to worry about that, but they do need to think about how to approach the roster in the next couple of seasons.

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What's Coming

You often hear about the strategy of spending big in free agency when you have a quality QB on a low-cost draft pick contract. However, the Broncos have their own players to think about first.

For example, cornerback Patrick Surtain II is eligible for an extension now. While it remains to be seen whether he'll be extended this season, it wouldn't surprise if he was extended in 2025 so the Broncos can lower his cap charge. Either way, that's cash the Broncos will need to commit to Surtain.

Then comes a number of players who are entering the final year of their contracts in 2024, most notably left tackle Garett Bolles. If the Broncos think he's worth extending, that's more cash they'll have to commit to a player already on the roster.

And then there's 2021 draft picks other than Surtain. Offensive guard Quinn Meinerez has a good case for an extension and free agency saw several guards get big contracts.

The Broncos will have to think about pass rushers Baron Browning and Jonathon Cooper as well. While neither player is likely to reset the market, both will be in line for significant raises.

Potential Future Cap Casualties & Restructures

The Broncos could free up resources by parting ways with some players in 2025 — and it's possible somebody could be traded this year. However, even by doing that, it's not a guarantee the Broncos can go on a big spending spree elsewhere in free agency, like they did in 2023.

Restructuring contracts is an option, but it's not ideal to do that year in and year out. The Broncos may have believed they had no choice but to restructure the deals for defensive Zach Allen, offensive guard Ben Powers, and right tackle Mike McGlinchey this season, but they should avoid doing that next season.

The reality is that the Broncos might not be taking advantage of the situation by bringing in lots of prized free agents in 2025. Rather, the money may instead be committing to keeping their own first.

In fact, taking care of their own first may be the smarter thing to do. It's tempting to look at a notable name in free agency, but sometimes the player you have, and know can get the job done, is the better one to sign.

The Takeaway

Whether it's keeping their own or bringing in new players, the Broncos are positioned to take advantage of a QB on a low-cost contract.

And the good news is that the Broncos are in a better position in the 2025 NFL draft at this time. Denver will have seven picks, including one in each of the first three rounds. In 2022 and 2023, the Broncos had no first-round pick, and this year, they had no second-rounder. 

Of course, things need to work out with Nix. We'll see if that happens, but unlike with the ill-fated Russell Wilson trade, the Broncos aren't risking as much with Nix.

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