Bo Nix Ranked 1st Among 2024 QB Prospects in 5 Advanced Metrics

The Denver Broncos feel very fortunate to have gotten the quarterback suited perfectly for Sean Payton.

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix celebrates a touchdown by tight end Cam McCormick as the Oregon Ducks take / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA

The Denver Broncos are still basking in the elation of getting their guy at No. 12 overall last Thursday night. While the draftniks in the media, perhaps in an effort to justify their jobs, continue to throw out the sub-par grades on the Broncos' draft class, Sean Payton and GM George Paton aren't losing any sleep over it.

No, the Broncos got their guy. A "point guard" on the grass and a "pied piper" when it comes to his magnetism within the locker room and leadership acumen.

That's who Bo Nix is. The MMQB's Albert Breer took Broncos fans inside the team's decision to select Nix, and the months-long run-up to the draft, during which Payton and Paton work very hard to keep their true QB intentions under wraps.

The biggest pre-draft criticism surrounding Nix stemmed from his purported lackluster arm (which is a total crock) and his prolific production at Oregon being a result of the scheme, not the player. Oregon's offense featured a gamut of screens, dump-offs, and other "gimme" throws that Nix capitalized on, but didn't necessarily require much from the quarterback.

So, as they did with every quarterback the Broncos scouted, Payton had all of Nix's "gimme" throws removed from his film cut-ups. Beyond that, Payton had Denver's analytics czar Scott Flaska dig into a few advanced passing metrics to see where Nix ranked among his fellow 2024 quarterback prospects. What emerged was a stunning realization for Payton and Paton.

"To combat the (fair) criticism that Nix came from such a screen/quick-game-heavy offense, they eliminated throws tagged as “givens” from the evaluation, as they did with all of the quarterbacks. From there, Payton and Paton got extensive, expansive advanced stats that elevated Nix above his peers. He was first in two-minute drills needing points, end-of-half two-minute drives, critical fourth-quarter two-minute drives, fourth quarter two-minute, and, importantly, negative play differential. He was second (to Rattler) in red-zone passing," Breer wrote.

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In the wake of the painfully slow and undeveloped quarterbacking Broncos fans have dealt with since Peyton Manning hung up his cleats, Nix's command in these advanced passing areas will be palpable. It's not going to be like years past when fans, like the coaches, have struggled to determine which QB is standing out most on the practice field.

Nix will pop off the screen, so to speak, quickly and quite easily. Nobody on the berm at Centura Health Training Center, nor the media observers, is going to have a difficult time deducing which QB gives the Broncos the best chance to win this summer. The cream always rises to the top, and the Broncos have suffered through a bout of lactose-intolerance for the past eight years.

Nix will make short work of the team's QB1 decision.

"All of it, as the coach and GM saw it, was a result of a quarterback who played fast, and team-first, and could serve as the sort of point-guard-on-grass Payton has always coveted. It was something the Broncos needed, too, coming off a year through which Russell Wilson was second in the league (ahead of only Justin Fields) in time taken to throw per attempt, per Denver’s research," Breer wrote.

Payton got his guy. As listeners of the Mile High Huddle Podcast can attest, I've asserted for months that there was no quarterback in the 2024 draft class better suited to the Broncos and Payton than Nix. Much of that had to do with Nix's intangible traits — his character, football IQ, and quick processor. Risking the possibility of losing out on Nix by trading back, just so Payton and Paton could placate the media draftniks by touting a few additional picks, would have been asinine.

And yet, for all the hate that Nix gets in the media, many of his strong suits and impressive traits have been glossed over, not the least of which are his physical measurables. The Broncos read the scouting report and could see Nix's 6-foot-2, 214-pound frame on tape, as well as his 10-1/8-inch hands, but when Payton and company showed up for the QB's private workout, they realized that, in person, he's a whole different breed of animal.

"Upon arriving at the Oregon football facility on the morning of March 18 at around 9 a.m., Payton asked Nix how long he’d been there. He answered that he’d gotten there about an hour beforehand and, sizing him up, the Broncos folks (Payton and Payton were joined by assistant GM Darren Mougey, VP of player personnel Cody Rager, OC Joe Lombardi and QBs coach Davis Webb) saw a guy who was flat-out bigger than advertised. He was stocky in his lower half, and had big hands. Solidly built, he left very little to wonder how he was able to play with such great control—he never fumbled over two years at Oregon," Breer wrote.

Despite being a bonafide first-round pick, Nix enters the NFL with a bit of a chip on his shoulder due to his legion of naysayers dating back to Auburn. That's a good thing and it can only help drive him toward success on the grid-iron.

But wait until the NFL gets a load of the world-sized timber on Payton's shoulder. The Broncos head coach has to be champing at the bit to serve up some fast and hard reality checks to his critics and doubters across the fruited plain.

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