Broncos QB Bo Nix's Rookie of the Year Odds Questioned by NFL Analyst

Not everyone has jumped on the Bo Nix train quite yet.

Aug 18, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) scrambles with the ball in the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Why not the Denver Broncos? Why not Bo Nix? Why not this year?

These are all questions floating around Broncos Country as expectations for the 2024 season grow to their usual optimism. The Broncos have not had much to be optimistic about over recent years.

And when there have been reasons to be excited, things tended to get off the rails and fast. Will this season under Sean Payton with a rookie first-round quarterback be any different?

This time around, the reasons for excitement feel much more grounded and reality based than in years past. The Broncos appear to be building methodically, opting for younger contractually-controlled players versus aging vets, in many instances, when it came down to cutting to the final 53-man roster.

This is a team with quiet confidence emanating from its head coach reveling in the doubt from the national pundits. This is Payton’s team and he seems to have gotten his guy at quarterback, so why wouldn’t he be confident?

Until Denver starts to win games on the field, though, the skepticism-boarding-on-disdain will continue. This isn’t just because the Broncos have been anemic for the better part of a decade or that they're very much in the shadow of NFL darling Patrick Mahomes and the current Kansas City Chiefs dynasty, but the general consensus that Denver reached on Nix with the 12th overall selection in this past April’s draft. 

By all reports, Nix has been fantastic leading up to the regular season, soundly defeating Jarrett Stidham in a quarterback battle as well as two solid outings in preseason action. Nix’s hype has climbed to the point that murmurs of “Rookie of the Year” have started to grow. However, there are those who are still not buying in on Nix.

Recently, the 33rd Team's Dan Pizzuta went through the league and picked the players who would win, those who wouldn't, and darkhorse candidates for the 2024 major player awards. Not many Broncos are in the running for these awards, but Nix has a chance. Count Pizzuta out among those believing in Nix, as he listed Nix as the player not to win the award this year.

"Bo Nix is now fourth in odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +1000. There is a lot of hype surrounding Nix and the Broncos this offseason, but it’s hard to see the path where everything comes together for Nix to leap over the other quarterbacks on this list.

"Even if Nix does something like set the rookie completion percentage record, the Broncos would have to be good enough for that to matter," Pizzuta wrote.

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A double shot from PIzzuta, but he may be correct in his analysis. The Broncos do currently possess the second-worst over/under, according to Vegas, at just 5.5, and is a team very much in transition.

Furthermore, the Broncos probably field one of the least-inspiring group of offensive weapons in the NFL. Outside Courtland Sutton, Denver’s receivers, backs, and tight ends feature a laundry list of injury concerns, and talent questions.

It can be argued that 2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams is in a far better spot to win the award this year as the heavy favorite surrounded by weapons galore. No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels does not have an incredible supporting cast, but his propensity for explosive plays as a passer and a runner might capture the eyes of the league. That said, these two lack one important aspect: an offensive innovator calling the shots.

Both the Chicago Bears (Williams) and Washington Commanders (Daniels) being shepherded by defensive-oriented coaches in Matt Eberflus and Dan Quinn, respectively, while Nix has an incredible advantage in having Payton designing his offense and putting him advantageous positions to succeed.

Nix also is arguably more pro-ready than a majority of quarterbacks given how many offensive systems he’s played, how many passes he’s made, and how much experience he has entering the league. It makes sense that he is listed behind Williams and Daniels, but do not count out the Broncos or Nix just yet.

There's a lot of football to be played, and the perspective surrounding the Broncos' lack of talent can change one game at a time.

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