Ex-NFL GM Michael Lombardi Doesn't Buy Broncos Being AFC West's Worst

Not every NFL talking head expects the Denver Broncos to suck in 2024.

Aug 18, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton during the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the offseason, many pundits predicted the Denver Broncos to finish last in the AFC West. Plenty pegged the Broncos as one of the weakest teams in the NFL, likely in the running for a top-five pick in the 2025 NFL draft.

In some ways, it's hard to blame them for being so low on the Broncos. Though Denver finished 8-9 last season, many of those wins were the good fortune of going on a historic takeaway streak or because other teams made costly mistakes late in games.

Then came the 2024 offseason, in which the Broncos parted ways with Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons, with plenty of needs to fill on the defensive line and in the secondary. There were also doubts about whether some players who had down seasons in 2023 could get back to form.

But there are those who think the Broncos might be getting overlooked. One of those people is former NFL executive Michael Lombardi, who thinks some people may be undervaluing the team.

In a recent piece for VSiN, Lombardi noted that bettors have the Broncos at 5.5 wins this season while the Las Vegas Raiders, an AFC West rival, are at 6.5 wins. While Lombardi notes that the Raiders have won nine of the last 10 outings against the Broncos, he thinks some might be selling the Broncos short.

"I get it, the book doesn’t think the Denver Broncos have a quarterback. Even though the Raiders will start Gardner Minshew, we all understand, the book included, that the Raiders don’t have one either. From the books’ point of view, the difference between both teams is the Raiders have the better defense—which might be correct in some ways. They have the better defensive line, for sure. Are they better in the secondary and linebacker? Not sure. One area that favors the Broncos is their head coach, Sean Payton... who is why I’m not buying the Raiders over the Broncos," Lombardi wrote.

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Lombardi noted that former Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson didn't fit what Payton wanted in a quarterback and he focused on slowing the game down. If the Broncos turned the ball over no more than one time, they found success, but they were winless in games in which the Broncos offense turned the ball over at least twice.

But Lombardi also wrote that Bo Nix, the 12th overall pick in the 2024 draft, is a good fit for Payton's scheme. Lombardi expects Payton to game-plan to Nix's strengths, adding that the rookie will listen to the coach's advice (something Wilson didn't do) and learn from him.

And though the Raiders had success under Antonio Pierce when he took as interim head coach last season, Lombardi noted that interim head coaches don't always carry over what they brought to the team in their second season.

"As good as the Raiders played defensively down the stretch, winning in Kansas City on Christmas Day, they still were not a good situational team. They struggled to win on third down, offensively and defensively, and were a horrible offensive and defensive red zone team. They won with their effort and not turning the ball over the last four weeks of the season. They were plus eight the last four weeks. Only against the Colts did they fail to force a turnover, which resulted in a loss," Lombardi wrote.

Getting back to the Broncos, some of the doubts people may have had might be getting answered. Denver signed Malcolm Roach and traded for John Franklin-Myers, giving them needed help on the defensive line. The Broncos also added safety Brandon Jones in free agency and, of course, they drafted Nix.

In the preseason, while Nix has far from proven he's the long-term guy, he has fared well and shows a lot of promise. His quick decision-making has been a plus, and it's allowed the Broncos to move the chains on offense. Plus, the Broncos have three quality backs atop the depth chart, with Javonte Williams, in particular, looking better than he did last season.

And while the Broncos defense can't guarantee the same success with turnovers like last season, there are signs that the unit can improve in other ways. The pass rush looks good, with 2024 third-round pick Jonah Elliss looking like he can make an impact this season. Riley Moss has shown he can be a solid No. 2 cornerback and Devon Key has handled himself well at safety.

Nothing can be taken for granted, of course, but given that some pundits aren't convinced that the Broncos can be a good team, that may put a chip on the shoulders of many players. But Lombardi is taking notice of what the Broncos have done. Although he doesn't expect the Broncos to push for a Wild Card spot just yet, he points out that Payton is the type of coach who will find a way to win.

Considering that Payton got eight wins out of last year's team, one shouldn't underestimate the Broncos' chances of matching that win total — and possibly finishing ahead of the Raiders in the AFC West. Sure, expecting the Broncos to win the division this year may be expecting too much, but there are reasons to be optimistic that they can do better than five to six wins now that Payton has a QB who is a better fit for his system.

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