Did Broncos Miss an Opportunity by Not Trading Courtland Sutton to Niners?

The Denver Broncos passed on what seemed like a golden opportunity to trade Courtland Sutton.

Aug 11, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) smiles while warming up before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. / Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Recently, the San Francisco 49ers extended disgrunteled wide receiver Brando Aiyuk after months of trade speculation, and along the way, the Denver Broncos were linked. According to reports by ESPN’s Dianna Russini and Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, the Broncos were involved in a potential trade that never was. 

We learned after the extension that the Niners wanted a receiver to replace Aiyuk, if he were to be traded, and they had their eyes on Courtland Sutton, the Broncos' top wide receiver. To feel comfortable making the trade, the Niners were reportedly willing to give Denver a third-round pick for Sutton.

When you add in Breer’s report, the pick to be exchanged would've been a Niners' third-round pick by way of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The question is, did the Broncos make the right decision?

In order to answer that question, we must examine all the details that have emerged since Aiyuk's extension knocked loose a lot of new information. Let's dive in.

Sutton & Financial Incentives

The Broncos moved on from Tim Patrick to ease their log jam at wide receiver and create an avenue for younger receivers like Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, and Marvin Mims Jr. to see the field. Releasing Patrick wasn’t a move to help the salary cap situation since the Broncos ate $6 million in dead money while saving a little over $1.1 million in cap space. It was about the log jam at the position. 

Sutton has the second-highest cap hit on the Broncos roster, at a hair under $17.3 million, behind left tackle Garett Bolles. Sutton was unsatisfied with his contract, and for months, the Broncos were unwilling to rework his deal.

However, the two sides finally came to an agreement on some bonuses that were considered unlikely to be earned. The fact that they are unlikely to be earned matters a ton here. 

When performance bonuses are handed out, they're dubbed unlikely or likely to be earned based on a player's track record. If they're likely to be earned, they'll count against the current year's salary cap, and if they go unearned, the team will re-gain that cap space the following season.

As unlikely bonuses, they count against the following year's salary cap if earned. This is important in this situation with Sutton. 

The Broncos wouldn’t be on the hook for any of the money unless he earned those bonuses. If he were with the Niners and earned them, it would go against their salary cap. With no new guaranteed money, the Broncos would save $9.6 million against the salary cap with $7.6 million in dead money. 

Had the Broncos traded Sutton, this would likely have kept Patrick on the roster. Remember, Patrick represents roughly $6 million in dead money while freeing up $1.1 million.

Trading Sutton would’ve added $1.6 million more in dead money, but it would have freed up $8.5 million more in usable cap space, which could’ve also been used to roll over into the 2025 season. The Broncos will still be dealing with Russell Wilson's dead cap hit, so an extra $8.5 million could be useful. 

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Value of the Third-Round Pick

The other fact here is the additional third-round pick, which, according to Breer, would’ve been from the Steelers. It's impossible to predict where that third-round pick would end up, but let's look at where different publications projected them. 

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season, and the defense they have is excellent, so most outlets view them as a nine or 10-win team. NFL.com had Pittsburgh tied with the Broncos as the 11th team in the AFC, but no record was given.

USA TODAY had the Steelers at 10-7, as did Sports Illustrated. I was unable to find a Steelers record prediction from ESPN or other national sites. That record would have put that pick Denver would have garnered from San Francisco for Sutton at around pick at No. 85 overall or the 20th or 21st pick in the third round. That's better than if the pick was coming from the Niners, who are projected to be in the late 90s, as they're one of the favorites to contend for a Super Bowl this year. 

Sutton's Clouded Future

The final fact to consider is the uncertainty of Sutton’s future with the team. There was a chance for the Broncos to rework his deal, which could’ve included an extension to secure his future with the team for at least a couple more seasons, but the team passed on that.

Rumors have been circulating about the Broncos wanting to move on from Sutton for almost three years. So, that's important to remember when talking about the uncertainty of his standing with the team in future years. 

The Broncos had a chance to proceed with Patrick, an extra third-round pick, and an additional $8.5 million in salary cap space, but they passed on that avenue. Would that have been better than having only Sutton for the 2024 season with uncertainty beyond 2025, the final year of his deal?

The Broncos are betting that Sutton's worth more to them on the team than all those other resources combined, and only time will tell whether they made the right decision.

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