Broncos Best, Worst Contract Values Revealed at the Bye

What value are the Denver Broncos getting contractually from key vets and free-agent signings?

As the Denver Broncos enter the bye week — which fortuitously happens to come around the midway point of the NFL season — it’s a good time to look at the value the team is getting in return from its players.

I’ve talked about Over the Cap’s valuation metric and how it can give one an idea of how much value a team is getting in return on a player's contract. While OTC’s metric isn’t the definitive measure, it can give you an idea about whether a player is really worth his contract.

Let’s look at which players are delivering a good return on the Broncos’ investment for 2023 and which players are not delivering.

Best Return Among Longtime Vets: Garett Bolles | OT

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APY salary: $17M

Cash spent for 2023: $14M

OTC valuation for year thus far: $15.1M

Bolles is not without his issues, but he has been a steady performer overall and is giving the Broncos the best return among those who have been under a veteran contract for multiple seasons.

He does carry a $20M cap charge for 2024, so it will be interesting to see what the Broncos do with him next season. Bolles got his current extension in 2020 after his rookie deal was about to expire, and the Broncos didn’t pick up his fifth-year option.

Offensive tackles are sometimes worth a third contract, so an extension isn’t out of the question. But that depends on Bolles’ play for the rest of the season. If he does regress, the Broncos will likely consider other options.

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Worst Return Among Longtime Vets: Justin Simmons | S

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APY salary: $15.25M

Cash spent for 2023: $14.4M

OTC valuation for year thus far: $4.25M

Simmons might have just received an AFC Defensive Player of the Week nod, but the reality is he hasn’t delivered enough value throughout the season.

While part of that is because he’s missed a couple of games because of injury, that’s something the Broncos will have to consider regarding his future. As we’ve seen in the past, Simmons tends to start the season slowly before doing better in the second half of the season.

But the Broncos need more consistency from him. And unlike offensive tackle, safeties are seldom worth a third contract that would put him at or near the top of the market. His status for 2024 bears watching.

Best Return Among 2023 FA Signings: Zach Allen | DL

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

APY salary: $15.25M

Cash spent for 2023: $17.25M

OTC valuation for year thus far: $14.85M

It took a couple of games for Allen to find his groove, but he has been good in the weeks leading up to the bye. Allen did get a considerable payday, but he’s now living up to the contract he signed.

Time will tell whether Allen continues to live up to his contract. He did come under scrutiny because he replaced a popular and productive player in Dre’Mont Jones. But now that he’s playing better, fans can breathe a little easier about his signing.

Worst Return Among 2023 FA Signings: Mike McGlinchey | OT

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APY Salary: $17.5M

Cash spent for 2023: $20M

OTC valuation for year thus far: $7.9M

While the Broncos' offensive line is nowhere near as bad as some make it out to be, what has likely gotten the O-line that reputation has been McGlinchey’s play thus far.

McGlinchey is the weak link in the Broncos’ pass protection, and given that the Broncos paid him a lot of money and he’s not delivering, it’s no surprise he’s coming under scrutiny. While he hasn’t been terrible, he has not proven to be worth the deal he signed.

Vet Who Might Be Worth Extending: Lloyd Cushenberry III | C

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APY salary: $1.14M

Cash spent for 2023: $2.74M

OTC valuation for year thus far: $10.1M

In previous seasons, I don’t think anybody looked at Cushenberry as a player the Broncos should extend. But he’s having his best season as a pro and, while it’s easy to say it’s because he’s in a contract year, it could also be a result of better coaching this year.

The good news about the center position is that, if you aren’t an elite player, you aren’t in line for a big payday. Thus, Cushenberry shouldn’t be in position to command top dollar. An option is for the Broncos to let him test the market first, then bring him back if he doesn’t find a strong offer elsewhere.

Tough Decision Ahead: Russell Wilson | QB

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APY salary: $49M

Cash spent for 2023: $28M

OTC valuation for year thus far: $29.9M

I’ve said several times that Wilson isn’t the problem, but he isn’t the solution, either. And while his valuation looks good from the standpoint of cash spent this year, it’s not so good when compared to the APY salary.

But the main reason the Broncos have a tough decision ahead with Wilson is that, if they keep him for 2024, they will also commit to him for 2025. His 2025 base salary of $37M is guaranteed for injury only but becomes fully guaranteed if he’s on the roster on March 21, 2024.

The Broncos’ win over the Chiefs as they enter the bye week does not guarantee that Wilson will be back for 2024. His situation must still be monitored from week to week.

While the Broncos have shown they can win games with a good defensive outing and a good running game, they will need help from the passing game at some point. Thus, the Broncos must ask themselves how much Wilson can help in that aspect.

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