Analytics Reveal Broncos' Biggest Tests Are Yet to Come

The next three weeks will reveal much about the 2024 Denver Broncos.

Oct 3, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) prepares to pass the ball in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

With the NFL season about halfway over and the Denver Broncos 5-3 for the season, there’s a lot of excitement among fans about a possible playoff trip. Of course, we’ll get a better idea about where the Broncos stand in the playoff race after this upcoming three-game stretch.

But how do the Broncos compare to the rest of the NFL? How do the Broncos measure up to their previous and upcoming opponents?

One way I analyze teams is via DVOA, the advanced metric created by Aaron Schatz. DVOA considers how effective teams are in all three phases of the game (offense, defense, and special teams).

To that end, the Broncos are ranked pretty high: 11th in overall DVOA (12 percent), 24th in offense DVOA (-8.7 percent), fifth overall in defensive DVOA (-15.1 percent), and fourth overall in special teams DVOA (5.6 percent). Keep in mind, for defense, DVOA is better when it’s negative.

The Broncos are a top-five team in defense and special teams, even when adjusted for opponents (which DVOA takes into greater account further into the season because of a larger sample size of games). As for offense, the Broncos are nowhere near the top, though they are improving.

How do the Broncos measure up to their past opponents? Let’s look at them.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 10th overall (12 percent), 19th offense (-3.6 percent), 11th defense (-8.3 percent), third special teams (7.3 percent).

Los Angeles Chargers: 14th overall (8 percent), 18th offense (-2.1 percent), eighth defense (-10.1 percent), 15th special teams (0 percent).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 15th overall (7.2 percent), eighth offense (11.7 percent), 15th defense (2.1 percent), 27th special teams (-2.4 percent).

Seattle Seahawks: 16th overall (5.7 percent), 15th offense (5 percent), 14th defense (0.6 percent), 12th special teams (1.3 percent).

New Orleans Saints: 22nd overall (-7.3 percent), 22nd offense (-6.9 percent), 22nd defense (4.7 percent), fifth special teams (4.2 percent).

New York Jets: 24th overall (-14.4 percent), 21st offense (-4.1 percent), 20th defense (3.8 percent), 30th special teams (-6.6 percent).

Las Vegas Raiders: 27th overall (-28.9 percent), 27th offense (-22.1 percent), 23rd defense (5.8 percent), 20th special teams (-0.9 percent).

Carolina Panthers: 32nd overall (-45.3 percent), 28th offense (-22.8 percent), 31st defense (20.7 percent), 24th special teams (-1.7 percent).

Thus far, the Broncos have faced one team in the top 10 in DVOA, but among those in the top half but not the top 10, all three are in the playoff hunt. The rest of them are currently among the weaker NFL teams for one reason or another.

With that said, a good team should decisively beat a weak team and the Broncos have done that against three of the four weaker teams they’ve played. In the case of the fourth, the Jets, plenty of analysts thought they'd be a playoff contender going into the season.

What happens next on the Broncos beat? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

As for the Broncos’ upcoming opponents, here’s how the next three measure up in DVOA.

Baltimore Ravens: Second overall (31.4 percent), first offense (36 percent), 18th defense (2.7 percent), 25th special teams (-1.9 percent).

Kansas City Chiefs: Fourth overall (28.1 percent), ninth offense (10.7 percent), fourth defense (-16.8 percent), 14th special teams (0.7 percent).

Atlanta Falcons: 13th overall (8 percent), sixth offense (13.4 percent), 21st defense (4.6 percent), 19th special teams (-0.9 percent).

You can see why the next three games will tell the tale about the Broncos’ playoff chances, with two teams in the top 10 in DVOA and the third in the top half. And there will be plenty of questions to ask about those games when it comes to showing how good the Broncos really are.

How will the Broncos defense fare against three top-10 offenses? Will the Broncos offense get it done against two defenses that aren’t among the top units? Can the offense come through in a close game? How will special teams decide things?

Bottom Line

Again, if the Broncos can win at least one of the three upcoming games, they'll still be in the playoff hunt, but if they win two of the three, few will doubt their playoff chances.

We’ll visit DVOA again after the Chiefs game, which will give us a 10-game sample for the Broncos.

---

Follow Denver Broncos On SI/Mile High Huddle on X and Facebook and subscribe on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!