Broncos Getting Bad Monetary Value on Many Key Players Through Week 2

The Denver Broncos aren't getting the return-on-investment they hoped thus far.

Sep 15, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) during the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Every year, teams want to get the most out of their players, particularly if they're paying them a lot. The Denver Broncos are no exception.

Veterans tend to get big contracts, particularly if they are elite players. But the more you pay these players, the more teams should expect to get in return.

Meanwhile, players who are on a draft pick contract — the first contract they receive in their NFL career — get paid a lot less than most veterans. They are often a way to get great value relative to what they are being paid.

Over the Cap developed the 'OTC valuation metric' to give fans an idea about whether or not teams are getting their money's worth for their players. The OTC valuation metric does not represent what a player should be expected to get in a contract, but is more about the value teams get relative to what the player is currently being paid.

In other words, this metric illustrates what a player might be worth at the moment based on how he's performing.

OTC keeps track of player evaluation for each week, but each player's season evaluation can be found on their page at the site. Let's look at some highlights regarding a few Broncos.

Bo Nix | QB

OTC valuation: $18.2M

Nix is getting about $11 million this season, with the bulk of that in a signing bonus. That's roughly what you would expect to pay for a bridge QB. As for his valuation, the Broncos are getting the value of a bridge QB in return.

Of course, this is based on a two-game sample, so it's possible Nix's valuation will increase if he improves. While it would be unrealistic to expect him to reach the level of Kyler Murray (who is valued at more than $43M after two games), it would be nice to see Nix's valuation rise into the $20-$25M range by season's end.

Zach Allen | DL

OTC valuation: $16.8M

Allen continues to deliver on the three-year deal he got from the Broncos last offseason. He's getting about $16M this year and delivering exactly what you would expect.

At the rate he is going, Allen is easily the best free agent signing from the 2023 haul. It will be interesting to see if he keeps this up because if he does, it may be worth asking whether the Broncos think about an extension for him next season.

Jonathon Cooper | OLB

OTC valuation: $22.9M

Cooper had a strong Week 1 but wasn't as good in Week 2. Still, he's easily the best edge rusher the Broncos have and is delivering excellent value on his rookie deal, even after he got proven performance escalators that increased his 2024 salary to a little more than $3.1M.

Among players with multi-year deals that are expiring, Cooper is delivering the most in return. If he can be consistent with his play, there's a strong case for extending him.

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Josh Reynolds | WR

OTC valuation: $14M

Here we have an example of a player whose valuation doesn't translate to the money he will receive. Reynolds will earn $4.5M this season but that's about what you would expect to pay for a role player like him.

What's good about Reynolds is that he fills the role, so he delivers a lot in return. He is exactly the type of free-agent signing to make because he won't cost a lot of money when compared to other players but will excel in his role.

Mike McGlinchey | OT

OTC valuation: $9.5M

McGlinchey played reasonably well in Week 1 but regressed in Week 2 and is now on injured reserve with an MCL sprain. He hasn't yet given the return the Broncos would expect from the deal he signed last offseason.

Because McGlinchey will miss some time, his valuation will decrease because when a player misses time with injuries, that's less value the team gets in return. While the signing hasn't been a disaster, it hasn't yielded the expected return.

Garett Bolles | OT

OTC valuation: $4.5M

Bolles is in the final year of the four-year extension he signed back in 2020. Last year, the Broncos got good return on the money he was due. This year, though, early returns haven't been good.

Of course, Bolles is playing through an ankle injury. However, if he's going to get extended, he will need to improve his play.

He's getting $16M this year and could be in line for that salary in free agency. If Bolles wants to get that from the Broncos, he must improve.

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We'll look again at OTC valuation after four weeks to see where key players stand and where the Broncos are getting the most bang for the buck.

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