Broncos' Bo Nix Gets the Nod Over Bears' Caleb Williams per The Athletic

When it comes to rookie quarterback supremacy, Jayden Daniels currently rules. But where do Bo Nix and Caleb Williams fit in?

Nov 3, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) scrambles in the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. / Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos have not been flush with premium draft picks over the last three seasons. Denver has been in a state of difficult team-building, being disadvantaged with selections in the first two rounds of the NFL draft after the Russell Wilson and Sean Payton trades.

Given the Broncos have had so few top-of-the-draft selections, it’s been hard to build a good, young roster full of ascending talent. With fewer picks, especially at the top of the draft, the probability of obtaining game-changing talent diminishes the further along the draft goes.

Fortunately, the Broncos' first round-one pick in three draft classes — Bo Nix — is trending toward being a solid hit based on some early signs in the rookie quarterback’s career.

Nine games is too small of a sample size to say definitively just how great Nix will be as a quarterback, but through the first half of his first year, he's done enough to be recognized by The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and his NFL Midseason All-Rookie Team. 

Listed as the runner-up for the All-Rookie team at quarterback behind the Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, Brugler leaned toward Nix over the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft.

“The production between Nix and Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams has been fairly similar, and there is an argument for either in terms of who’s looked better on tape (especially over the last few weeks). But the main difference has been Nix’s ability to create explosive plays in the air and with his legs. He is responsible for 33 plays of 20-plus yards, second in the NFL to only Jackson; Williams has 20 plays of 20-plus yards. This runner-up spot should be a fun competition between Nix, Williams and New England Patriots QB Drake Maye over the second half of the season. Maye got a late start, but he certainly looks like he belongs," Brugler wrote.

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As Sean Payton stated a few weeks ago, even after scouting and spending time with Nix during the pre-draft process, he's been surprised by Nix revealing himself to be a plus-athlete on the NFL Level. Of course, Nix was a top dual-threat quarterback recruit coming out of high school, but that doesn’t mean it will translate to playing against grown men in the NFL as well as it has for Nix. 

Nix’s athleticism early on helped the Broncos cobble together some semblance of an offense while he and Payton attempted to work on a dropback passing offense. Nix still has shown good athleticism as a rusher, but over the last few weeks, his ability to escape the pocket has resulted in play extension in the passing game, compared to outright tucking and running as a threat. The more Nix can utilize his athleticism to buy time and create explosives in the passing game, the more dynamic he will become as a quarterback.

Nix has also dropped his turnover-worthy plays by a substantial amount. After accumulating five such plays, as deemed by Pro Football Focus, over the first three weeks of the season, he has been credited with just one over the last six games. He's only thrown two interceptions with zero fumbles over that time frame.

It won’t make the highlight reel, but playing complementary football by protecting the ball helps win games in the margins. That's something Nix has done well recently.

Nix must continue to grow as a passer and work on his accuracy. For being such an incredibly accurate passer during his time at Oregon, Nix’s inconsistent footwork and fundamentals have resulted in some painful misses throughout his rookie season.

Nix’s play within the structure of the dropback passing game is also worthy of criticism, as he has sometimes not manipulated space within the pocket very well or consistently. And that's despite the Broncos' offensive line has grading out as one of the best pass-protecting units in the NFL.

According to PFF, Nix has the highest rate of pressures assessed as being the quarterback’s fault of any player with at least 60 pass attempts, at 29.8%. This isn’t entirely his fault, given the lack of playmakers on the Broncos offense. Sometimes, it’s okay for quarterbacks to invite pressure, but it is something to monitor and understand before outright casting blame on the offensive line.

It appears as if Daniels is likely to run away with Rookie of the Year award this season, while Williams, Maye, and Nix will have to battle for second. Daniels is on a team likely to win its division, has a higher draft profile in a larger market, and has the narrative on his side (how about that hail mary, eh?).

However, given the desert the Broncos have been wandering in terms of young players and a quarterback to be excited about, Nix earning this acknowledgment is a good sign of what's to come.

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