Broncos QB Bo Nix 'Not Overly Impressive' This Summer per 33rd Team

Some NFL analysts are selling on the Bo Nix hype that has mounted around Denver Broncos HQ.

Aug 18, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) scrambles with the ball in the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Are the Denver Broncos back? After years of underwhelming performances and perennially missing the postseason, eyes around the league are landing on Denver and wondering whether Sean Payton might have a darkhorse playoff contender brewing in the Mile High City.

The Broncos are beset with a difficult AFC West division with the back-to-back Super Bowl-winning Kansas City Chiefs and a deficit in both salary-cap space and top 100 draft picks on the roster, both thanks to the flop that was the Russell Wilson experiment. What really has held Denver back from making any sort of noise in the league post-Peyton Manning has been the parade of inadequacy at quarterback.

However, with 12th overall pick Bo Nix set to be Denver's starting quarterback this season, and the only first-round hand-selected quarterback of Payton’s head-coaching career, there is tangible hope again in Broncos Country.

After two great statistical outings in the preseason and positive buzz surrounding Nix in Broncos training camp, is everyone buying in on Nix leading Denver back to relevancy and finally filling the long-term quarterback void? While his preseason outings have been promising, there are still many questions yet to be answered, and not everyone is ready to hop on the Nix train.

Marcus Mosher of the 33rd Team is 'selling' on the Broncos’ 24-year-old rookie quarterback. In a recent 'buy or sell' article, Mosher listed Nix as a player he would sell the hype on currently. 

"There is no question that Bo Nix has looked fantastic in the preseason. He's carved up two defenses and has looked incredibly confident in both contests.

"However, most of his passes have been close to the line of scrimmage against second and third-team defenses. That doesn't take away from what he's done, but it's also not overly impressive either.

"Nix has done enough to warrant more looks and should get a chance to start early in the 2024 season. But don't expect him to light the world on fire out of the gate, either. Sean Payton is keeping the offense simple, and it's working against vanilla defenses. Color me skeptical that he's going to look THIS good right away," Mosher wrote.

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Nix had the fortune of playing with starters or second-string units against opposing second and third-team opponents in his two preseason matchups. Also, over his relatively small sample size, he was not asked to guide the Broncos’ offense out of many disadvantageous situations.

With Nix at the helm, the Broncos, overall, kept on time, avoided sacks and penalties and did not face many obvious pass downs, putting the offense in a low probability position to succeed. This is partially credit to Nix and Payton operating the offense, but also something that every team will have to face at some point in a game, no matter how good your quarterback and play-caller are. Those questions were not asked relative to what fans can expect in a regular season game.

Furthermore, the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers, on top of playing backups, played mostly conservative coverage and pressure looks. This afforded Nix plenty of space to operate underneath and take positive yardage to move the sticks.

The football was moved consistently but the aDOT was so low that it should tell savvy football fans how replicable the style of play was to the regular season. Nix’s aDOT of 6.4 would have been the lowest in the NFL of any quarterback with at least 200 dropbacks last season, which included a relatively robust sample of 38 signal-callers.

This is not to say that Nix and the Broncos won’t be able to push the ball when the time comes or when it's necessary to do so in the regular season. But an under-center dropback pass game utilizing the full field will be a question for Nix in Denver until a large enough sample is gathered to answer whether he can operate that way and to what level of play.

There can be no doubt that Nix has the combination of tools when it comes to processing, accuracy, and athleticism in a well-built frame to be a serviceable quarterback, especially on a rookie contract. However, just how great Nix can be and if he can be the caliber of quarterback necessary for Denver to once again become a mainstay in the AFC remains to be seen.

Early indications should have Broncos Country exuberant and rightfully so. But the quality of opponents and complexity of defenses are about to ramp up by multiple factors from this point on.

Until Nix compiles a larger sample size of efficiency against a variety of opponents, it’s as viable to be skeptical with a wait-and-see approach as it is to be all in on the hype train with him as a franchise savior in Denver.

However, given Payton’s offensive ingenuity and excitement surrounding the team's rookie quarterback, no one should fault Broncos Country for being energized and excited that the team may have finally found a quarterback that gives them hope going forward.

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